Toyota Owners 400 Betting Guide: Odds, Top 5 Drivers, Race Winner

by Rick Rockwell
on April 12, 2019
14

Minute Read

On Saturday, April 13th, NASCAR will be live under the lights at the Richmond Raceway in Richmond, Virginia, for the Toyota Owners 400. This is the 9th race of the season and Kyle Busch has a commanding lead at the top of the standings. With 3 wins on the season, and the defending champ of this race, Busch is the odds on favorite to win this Saturday night according to the majority of NASCAR betting sites.

Race Profile

The Richmond Raceway has been a part of NASCAR since the early 1950s. It’s one of the oldest venues to host NASCAR races and it’s a place where many of NASCAR’s legends were born. Lee Petty, the father of Richard Petty, won the first race here in 1953. NASCAR has run races at Richmond every year since 1959.

The track has an asphalt surface with a distance of .75 miles. It’s a basic d-shape oval with 4 turns, a front stretch, and a backstretch. After being moved around on the calendar over the last few years, the spring Richmond race returned to Saturday nights where it’s traditionally been held for decades.

The Toyota Owners 400 breaks down as follows:

  • Total Miles: 300
  • Total Laps: 400
  • Stage 1: First 100 laps
  • Stage 2: Second 100 laps
  • Final Stage: Remaining 200 laps

The race begins at 7:30 PM ET and it will air on FOX.

What to Watch for in Richmond

The following Toyota Owners 400 storylines are worth keeping an eye on this Saturday night:

  • Will Kyle Busch tie Richard Petty for the most spring Richmond race wins?
  • Can anyone dethrone Busch at Richmond?
  • Will Kevin Harvick contend for a checkered flag?
  • Is this the race that Kyle Larson gets his first win of 2019?
  • Can Joey Logano win his 3rd spring Richmond race?

Previous Toyota Owners 400 Winners

With such a rich history, this race has seen many great winners come and go. “The King” Richard Petty holds the record with the most wins of the spring Richmond race at 6. However, Kyle Busch swept the Richmond races last year and is poised to tie Petty for the most wins in this race if he can win on Saturday night. Of all the active drivers, Joey Logano is the only other one to win two or more races along with Kyle Busch. The following is a list of winners dating back to 2004:

  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2004, 2006 and 2000
  • Kasey Kahne in 2005
  • Jimmie Johnson in 2007
  • Clint Bowyer in 2008
  • Kyle Busch from 2009 to 2012 and in 2018
  • Kevin Harvick in 2013
  • Joey Logano in 2014, 2017
  • Kurt Busch in 2015
  • Carl Edwards in 2016

NASCAR Toyota Owners 400 Betting Odds

The following NASCAR betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Kyle Busch +200
  • Brad Keselowski +600
  • Kevin Harvick +600
  • Joey Logano +700
  • Martin Truex Jr +700
  • Denny Hamlin +800
  • Ryan Blaney +1200
  • Chase Elliott +1400
  • Clint Bowyer +2000
  • Aric Almirola +2200
  • Kurt Busch +2200
  • Kyle Larson +2200
  • Erik Jones +2800
  • Jimmie Johnson +2800
  • Daniel Suarez +5000
  • Austin Dillon +10000
  • Ryan Newman +10000
  • Alex Bowman +12500
  • Matt DiBenedetto +12500
  • Paul Menard +12500
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr +12500
  • William Byron +12500
  • Chris Buescher +25000
  • Daniel Hemric +25000
  • Ryan Preece +25000
  • Darrell Wallace Jr +50000
  • David Ragan +50000

Food City 500 Betting Favorites

According to most NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the Toyota Owners 400:

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Kyle Busch 6 17 20 12.7 6.9 0
Brad Keselowski 1 4 9 10.6 13.5 1
Kevin Harvick 3 14 23 13.7 10.1 0
Joey Logano 2 8 11 9.4 9.6 1
Martin Truex Jr. 0 3 9 13.8 19.2 4

Kyle Busch (+200)

If there were any doubts as to who the best driver is in 2019, Kyle Busch silenced those doubts last weekend and put that argument to rest after winning at Bristol. It was his 3rd win of the season and he’s now 8 for 8 with Top 10 finishes this year. He also has 5 Top 5’s. Coming into this weekend, Kyle has an average finish of 3.4 this season and it should be no surprise that he sits on top of the driver standings with a 27 point lead over Denny Hamlin. Kyle has won the most stages and also has the most playoff points.

If that wasn’t enough to deter his rivals, then his success at Richmond should do the job. In 27 starts, Busch has 6 wins, 17 Top 5’s, 20 Top 10’s, an average finish of 6.9, has zero DNFs and swept both races last year. Only twice has he ever finished outside of the Top 20. It’s an incredible domination at a historic track and there should be no reason why he doesn’t continue that success this weekend.

Brad Keselowski (+600)

I understand that Keselowski has 2 wins this year and that he’s one of the top drivers at this point in 2019, but having him with higher odds than some of the other drivers like Denny Hamlin or Joey Logano is just silly on behalf of the NASCAR oddsmakers. For the year, Keselowski sits 5th in the standings with 2 wins, 4 Top 5’s and 4 Top 10’s. He’s had two subpar races in a row with a 36th place in Texas and then an 18th last weekend at Bristol. Keselowski needs to bounce back this weekend and get some momentum going again.

But will he be able to bounce back at Richmond? In 19 career starts, Brad has 1 win, 4 Top 5’s, 9 Top 10’s, an average finish of 13.5 and 1 DNF. Brad has been consistent at this track, but he hasn’t won since the fall Richmond race in 2014. Since then, he has 5 Top 10’s with a runner up in the spring 2017 race.

Keselowski should be in the hunt for another Top 10 at Richmond, but I don’t think he will compete with Busch and some of the other drivers for the checkered flag.

Kevin Harvick (+600)

Is there any other driver disappointing fans and experts more than Kevin Harvick? And, that’s pretty hard to say considering he’s 4th in the driver standings with 3 Top 5’s, 6 Top 10’s, and 2 stage wins. However, he hasn’t won at all in the first 8 races. At this point last year, Harvick already had 3 wins and was the odds on favorite to win the championship. But, this year, he hasn’t even led the most laps in a race so far. With that said, Richmond might be just what Harvick needs to turn things around.

In his 36 starts, Harvick has 3 wins, 14 Top 5’s, 23 Top 10’s, an average finish of 10.1, and 0 DNFs. Since his 2013 win of this spring race, Harvick has 7 Top 5’s, 9 Top 11’s, and his lowest result was 15th. Last year, Harvick was 5th in this race and 2nd in the Fall.

I like Harvick’s chances more than Keselowski or Truex. And, I think the #4 car is going to have something to compete with this Saturday night.

Joey Logano (+700)

Logano comes into this weekend sitting 3rd in the standings with 1 win, 4 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, and is second behind Kyle Busch with 3 stage wins. After two average performances at Martinsville and Texas, Logano had a strong run last weekend at Bristol when he finished 3rd. He led 146 laps, which was second most on the day. Despite some middle of the pack finishes this year, Joey is still averaging a 9.9 finish.

At Richmond, Logano has 2 wins, 8 Top 5’s, 11 Top 10’s, an average finish of 11.6 and 1 DNF in 20 career starts. However, it’s been his last 10 races where Logano has really excelled at this track. During that span, Logano has 9 Top 10’s, 6 Top 5’s, and 2 wins. His worst finish was 14th over that span, which came in last year’s fall race.

As mentioned above, Logano is the only other active driver to have won this spring race twice. Will he be able to make it a third time this weekend?

Martin Truex Jr (+700)

Of all the betting favorites, Truex has had the worst success at this track. For starters, he has 4 DNFs in his career at Richmond. In 26 starts, he has no wins, 3 Top 5’s, 9 Top 10’s, and a 19.2 average finish. These aren’t good numbers. Even in his 2017 championship season, Truex crashed out of the fall race and only managed a 10th place finish in the spring race that year.

For this season, Truex has probably been the most disappointing driver even if he might be overshadowed some by Harvick’s shortcomings. Last year, Truex was a member of the Big 3, but this year, he’s far from it. Although he’s ranked 7th in the standings, Truex has only really been competitive in two races: Atlanta and Phoenix where he finished 2nd at both tracks.

Last weekend, Truex only managed to crack the Top 20 as he finished 17th. It’s his third race outside of the Top 10 this year. Martin really needs a win with his new racing team. Unfortunately, this isn’t the track for that to happen. With Truex’s struggles at Richmond, he will be very fortunate to even crack the Top 10. More than likely, Martin’s looking at a 15th to 20th place finish this weekend.

Best Betting Value at Richmond

The following drivers offer betting value for this weekend’s Toyota Owners 400 due to their current betting odds, their past success at this track, and their 2019 season:

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Kurt Busch 2 7 15 16.1 15.4 1
Kyle Larson 1 2 4 8.5 9.7 0
Jimmie Johnson 3 7 15 13.1 15.1 1

Kurt Busch (+2200)

On the year, Kurt Busch sits 8th in the standings. However, he moved up 2 spots this week after finishing 2nd at Bristol last weekend. Other than his 25th place at Daytona when he got caught up in a wreck, Kurt has finished 12th or better in 7 straight races. He has 3 Top 5’s and 6 Top 10’s this season.

The Busch brothers finished 1-2 last weekend at Bristol where they both won in the past. Richmond is another track where both brothers have won as well. Could we see another 1-2 Busch finish?

In 36 starts, Kurt has 2 wins, 7 Top 5’s, 15 Top 10’s, an average finish of 15.4 and just 1 DNF. Last year, he finished 11th and 18th at this track. Prior to that, he had 8 Top 10’s dating back to the 2013 spring race. That span also included Kurt winning the 2015 spring race here.

Kyle Larson (+2200)

As my hometown driver, I have a soft spot for Larson. Although I root for him, it’s hard to pick him to win at tracks when he’s going up against other drivers that are better. With that said, Larson actually has a shot at Richmond and his betting odds offer great value.

In 10 races, Larson has 1 win, 2 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, an average finish of 9.7 and 0 DNFs. Last year, Larson finished 7th in both Richmond races. He has 4 Top 5’s in the last 5 Richmond races. Now, you can see why I feel Kyle will be contending for a checkered flag at Richmond. And, it’s much needed for Larson as he’s had an inconsistent 2019 to date.

Currently, Larson sits 14th in the standings and that’s down two sports after finishing 19th last weekend at Bristol. With only 2 Top 10’s on the year and 0 Top 5’s, Larson desperately needs a strong run this weekend and I think he will get it.

Jimmie Johnson (+2800)

Mr. “7-Times” has been a weekly play for me as a betting value pick or as a longshot. And, this weekend will be no different. JJ has taken some lumps this season with a new crew chief, but it appears he’s starting to turn things around. Two weeks ago, JJ started on the pole at Texas and ended up finishing 5th after leading 50 laps. He then followed that up with a 10th place finish at Bristol last weekend. JJ has moved up 2 spots in the standings and now sits 13th overall with 1 Top 5, 4 Top 10’s, and a modest 14.5 average finish.

At Richmond, JJ has 3 wins, 7 Top 5’s, 15 Top 10’s, an average finish of 15.1 and just 1 DNF. Over the last 9 races at this track, JJ has finished in the Top 11 for all of them. He also has 2 Top 5’s in that span. Last year, despite being a down year for JJ, he managed to place 6th in the spring race and 8th in the fall.

I expect Johnson to be in the Top 10 and, with a little luck, could possibly be up front at the end of the race.

Top Longshot to Win at Richmond

Ryan Newman at +10000 odds is once again my longshot to win. This is the 6th time that I’ve had Ryan listed as the longshot and it’s because of his past success at this track. In 34 starts, Newman has 1 win, 7 Top 5’s, 18 Top 10’s, an average finish of 12.6 and 1 DNF which came in the spring race last year. He bounced back to get a 15th in the fall race. Prior to that, Newman finished 3rd and 7th in the 2017 Richmond races. I really like Newman’s 52% Top 10 rate at Richmond and I believe he will do that again this weekend.

Newman has put together two solid weeks in a row. At Texas, he finished 11th and last weekend he finished 9th at Bristol. Newman appears to be gaining some momentum and I like that to carry over to this Saturday night’s Richmond race.

Toyota Owners 400 Prop Bets: Driver Matchups

These NASCAR prop bets require you to pick the winning driver out of head-to-head matchups at the Richmond Raceway on Saturday, April 13th. These driver matchups and betting odds are courtesy of 5Dimes:

Aric Almirola (-115) vs Kyle Larson (-115)

Driver Aric Almirola Kyle Larson
Wins 0 1
Top 5 2 2
Top 10 5 4
Avg Start 21.1 8.5
Avg Finish 15.5 9.7
DNF 0 0
Total Races 14 10

Almirola currently sits 9th in the standings, which is 5 spots higher than Larson. Almirola has 6 Top 10’s on the year, which is 3 times as many as Larson has on the year. However, Richmond is a track where Almirola has struggled at and I believe that will continue this weekend despite his strong running this season.

Aric has only ever led 1 lap here while Larson has led 73 and won at Richmond. They both have the same amount of Top 5’s despite Almirola having 4 more tries. Larson has a better average start and finish, which will also come into play this weekend.

I believe this is the weekend Larson turns his season around and I like him to win in this head to head matchup. Almirola will crack the Top 20, but Larson will be in the Top 5 and challenging for a checkered flag when it’s all said and done.

Winner: Kyle Larson (-115)

Austin Dillon (-130) vs Ryan Newman (+100)

Driver Austin Dillon Ryan Newman
Wins 0 1
Top 5 0 7
Top 10 1 18
Avg Start 22.4 13.3
Avg Finish 19.6 12.6
DNF 0 1
Total Races 10 34

I really like this matchup and I believe it offers fantastic betting value. I’ve laid out my case for Newman at Richmond in the longshot section above. And, I believe he’s going to easily beat Austin Dillon in this head to head matchup. Dillon has only 1 Top 10 at Richmond and that came in the fall race last year. His average finish of 19.6 is 7 spots lower than Newman and his average starting position is 9 spots worse.

Dillon has never led a lap at this track and currently sits 3 spots lower in the driver standings than Newman. Austin has put together two straight 14th place finishes compared to Newman who was 11th and 9th. However, Dillon’s momentum is going to come to a halt on Saturday at Richmond. His lack of success at this track leads me to believe that Newman will smoke him in this prop bet.

Winner: Ryan Newman (+100)

Jimmie Johnson (-160) vs Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+130)

Driver Jimmie Johnson Ricky Stenhouse Jr
Wins 3 0
Top 5 7 1
Top 10 15 2
Avg Start 13.1 15.4
Avg Finish 15.2 19.8
DNF 1 0
Total Races 34 12

Currently, JJ sits 3 spots higher than Stenhouse in the standings, but I believe that’s going to change starting this weekend. JJ has been trending upward these last two weeks while Stenhouse has been trending downward with a 33rd place finish at Bristol last weekend. He was 16th in Texas where JJ finished 5th as well.

Stenhouse has just one Top 5 in 12 races and just 2 Top 10’s. JJ has run well at Richmond especially over the last 5 years. Johnson is a significant betting favorite in this matchup and I expect him to easily win. Look for JJ to be a Top 10 car all race and for Stenhouse to barely crack the Top 25.

Winner: Jimmie Johnson (-160)

The Toyota Owners 400 Checkered Flag

I feel like a broken record or, for the more modern crown, I feel like my Apple Music is stuck on repeat as I once again say that Kyle Busch is the man to beat this weekend. However, unlike with recent tracks where I said this already, Kyle really is the man at Richmond. He’s coming into this race with a lot of momentum as he swept both Richmond races last year. He leads the series with 3 wins on the season so far, and he looks like he could get 10 this year.

I do think there will be a few challengers on Saturday night, which means that Kyle won’t lead 400 laps and dominate. I mentioned Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, and Joey Logano all as contenders to win this race. I think all three will be in the Top 5 and they will give Kyle Busch all he can handle.

Another driver that wasn’t listed as a favorite, but could win this race, is Denny Hamlin. In 25 starts at Richmond, Hamlin has 3 wins, 11 Top 5’s and 15 Top 10’s. He also has a 9.6 average finish with zero DNFs. His 60% Top 10 finish rate is very impressive. Let’s also not forget that Denny Hamlin is 2nd in the driver standings and also has 2 wins this season.

Rounding out the Top 10 will be Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, and Ryan Newman.

As for the race winner, you can only really pick one driver – Kyle Busch. I’ve tried to get cute in previous weeks and pick someone else instead of Kyle, but it blew up in my face. This weekend, I rather go with the man and take the safe play with Rowdy winning this race for the 6th time in his career.

My Top 5 Drivers

  • Kyle Busch
  • Kyle Larson
  • Joey Logano
  • Kevin Harvick
  • Denny Hamlin

Toyota Owners 400 Betting Recap

Winner:

  • Kyle Busch (+200)

Betting Value:

  • Kurt Busch (+2200)
  • Kyle Larson (+2200)
  • Jimmie Johnson (+2800)

Longshot:

  • Ryan Newman (+10000)

Driver Matchups:

  • Kyle Larson (-115) over Aric Almirola
  • Ryan Newman (+100) over Austin Dillon (-130)
  • Jimmie Johnson (-160) over Ricky Stenhouse Jr
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at hot-casino.com to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.

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