Gander Outdoors 400 at Dover Betting Preview, Odds and Predictions

by Rick Rockwell
on October 7, 2018
9

Minute Read

On Sunday, October 7th, NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series returns to Dover International Speedway for the Gander Outdoors 400. This is the first race for NASCAR’s 2nd round of the playoffs, with only 12 drivers remaining in contention for the championship. Additionally, this weekend’s event marks the second Dover race of the year and the second NASCAR race with the sponsored title of Gander Outdoors.

For those looking to jump straight into the betting action on the Gander Outdoors 400, here are the top sites we recommend:

Gander Outdoors 400 Race Profile

The Gander Outdoors is raced on a 1-mile, concrete oval called Dover International Speedway. For this race there will be 400 laps total, which breaks down as follows:

  • Stage 1: First 120 laps
  • Stage 2: Second 120 laps
  • Stage 3: Remaining 160 laps
  • Total Distance: 400 miles

Heading into Dover

Coming into this race, NASCAR has already eliminated 4 drivers from the playoffs. The remaining 12 drivers have been reorganized based on playoff points and look to get a crucial victory at Dover on Sunday.

Last weekend, NASCAR held its first race at The Roval and it delivered in a big way. Fans in attendance and at home were treated to a highly anticipated showdown that ended in dramatic fashion. Jimmie Johnson crashed into Martin Truex Jr. on the final turns of the last lap and ended up being eliminated from the playoffs. Ryan Blaney squeezed his way through the wreckage and ended up shocking everyone by winning the inaugural Roval race. Will we have any surprises at Dover this weekend or will the cream rise to the top?

Current Playoff Standings

Only the Top 8 drivers will advance to Round 3 of the playoffs. Currently, Elliott, Larson, Almirola and Bowman are below the cutoff line:

  1. Kyle Busch (3055 pts)
  2. Kevin Harvick (3050 pts)
  3. Martin Truex Jr. (3038 pts)
  4. Brad Keselowski (3025 pts)
  5. Clint Bowyer (3015 pts)
  6. Joey Logano (3014 pts)
  7. Kurt Busch (3014 pts)
  8. Ryan Blaney (3013 pts)
  9. Chase Elliott (3008 pts)
  10. Kyle Larson (3006 pts)
  11. Aric Almirola (3001 pts)
  12. Alex Bowman (3000 pts)

Storylines to Watch

The following storylines are worth following on Sunday:

  • Who will get the first playoff win of the 2nd round?
  • Will Kevin Harvick sweep Dover this year?
  • Will a driver outside of the playoffs win this weekend?
  • Will any playoff drivers gamble for the win or play it safe on Sunday?

Sports Betting at Dover

For the first time in the history of NASCAR, and any other major professional sports, fans and sports bettors will be able to place wages on the race at the event’s venue – Dover International Speedway. Delaware Lottery kiosks will be set up at the track and fans in attendance can place multiple types of Gander Outdoors 400 wagers like the race winner, driver matchups, manufacturer matchups and more. Fans will also be able to bet on the season championship.

Delaware was the first state to legalize sports betting after SCOTUS struck down PASPA in May. Since then, the state has been leading the charge in sports betting and seeing a great return on revenue. For more about this historic on-site betting at Dover, check out our latest videocast .

Gander Outdoors 400 at Dover Betting Odds

The following NASCAR Gander Outdoors 400 betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Kevin Harvick +250
  • Kyle Busch +300
  • Martin Truex Jr +400
  • Kyle Larson +700
  • Brad Keselowski +1000
  • Chase Elliott +1200
  • Clint Bowyer +1400
  • Joey Logano +1400
  • Ryan Blaney +1800
  • Kurt Busch +2000
  • Jimmie Johnson +2000
  • Denny Hamlin +2200
  • Erik Jones +2500
  • Aric Almirola +4000
  • Daniel Suarez +5000
  • Alex Bowman +5000
  • Jamie McMurray +10000
  • Austin Dillon +10000
  • Paul Menard +12500
  • Ryan Newman +15000
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr +25000
  • Willaim Byron +30000
  • Matt Kenseth +30000
  • Chris Buescher +50000
  • AJ Allmendinger +50000
  • Kasey Kahne +50000
  • Ty Dillon +100000
  • Ross Chastain +100000
  • JJ Yeley +100000
  • Matt DiBenedetto +100000
  • Michael McDowell +100000
  • Bubba Wallace +100000
  • BJ McLeod +100000
  • Timmy Hill +100000
  • Corey LaJoie +100000
  • Jeffrey Earnhardt +100000

 

Gander Outdoors 400 Betting Favorites

The following drivers are the odds on favorites to win this weekend’s race at Dover:

Kevin Harvick (+250)

Kevin Harvick comes into this race as the odds on favorite and second in the playoff standings. Harvick won the Dover race in May and is looking for the sweep in 2018. Harvick finished 9th at The Roval last weekend, but has yet to win a race in the playoffs. During the 1st round of the postseason, Harvick finished 39th in Vegas, 2nd in Richmond, and 9th last weekend.

At Dover, Harvick is a different animal. In his 35 career starts, Kevin has 2 wins, 6 Top 5’s, 16 Top 10’s, and an average finish of 14.5. He only has 1 DNF in his Dover career and won the fall race here in 2015.

Harvick will be one of the top drivers this weekend, but will he be able to win his first race since Michigan, almost 2 months ago?

Kyle Busch (+300)

Kyle Busch did not have a good race last weekend at The Roval. In fact, Busch crashed and had his worst finish of the season since a crash at Daytona roughly 3 months ago. It was Kyle’s worst finish in the postseason as well. Prior to finishing 32nd last weekend, Busch had 4 straight Top 8 finishes including a win at Richmond two weekends ago. With that said, Kyle is definitely looking forward to Dover.

In Kyle’s 27 career starts at DIS, Busch has 3 wins, 12 Top 5’s, 16 Top 10’s, and an average finish of 15th. However, Busch does have 7 DNFs, which is concerning. He had car problems in the spring race and finished 35th. However, Busch did win the Dover fall race last year and finished 2nd in the fall during 2016 and 2015. It seems that Kyle can’t figure out Dover in the spring, but shows up and runs well in the fall. Will he continue that trend this year?

Martin Truex Jr (+400)

Out of the Big 3 drivers, I believe Truex might just be the one to beat on Sunday. Last weekend, Truex Jr. would’ve won at The Roval, but Johnson crashed into Truex on the final turns of the final lap. That caused Martin to finish 14th. At Vegas and Richmond, the first two races of the playoffs, Truex finished 3rd in both and collected three big stage wins along the way. After 3 races, Truex leads all playoff drivers in stage wins and currently sits 3rd in the playoff standings.

At Dover, Truex has 2 wins, 5 Top 5’s, 14 Top 10’s, and an average finish of 12.9 in 25 career starts. In the spring, Martin finished 4th. It marked the 4th straight Top 4 finish for Truex at Dover. In fact, since the spring of 2014, Truex has finished 9th or better in 8 of the 9 races. The lone race that he didn’t get 9th or better, Truex finished 11th. Truex won the fall race here in 2016.

Will Truex continue his postseason stage domination at Dover this weekend?

Kyle Larson (+700)

Out of the top 5 odds on favorites to win this Sunday’s race, Kyle Larson has the least experience at Dover. However, his small sample size has been rather impressive. In 9 career starts, Larson has 4 Top 5’s and 7 top 10’s. He has an average finish of 8.1, which is 3rd best out of all active drivers with 3 or more starts at this track. Kyle finished 10th at Dover in the spring.

Last weekend, Larson finished 25th at The Roval after finishing 7th at Richmond and 2nd at Vegas. He was able to climb up in the standings and barely squeaked into the 2nd round. Both he and Almirola made it into the next round by winning tiebreakers.

Will Larson be able to get another Top 10 finish at Dover and move up in the playoff standings?

Brad Keselowsk (+1000)

Brad Keselowski is still one of the hottest drivers in NASCAR despite his crash and 31st place finish at The Roval last weekend. Keselowski won 3 straight races to close out the regular season and the opening race of the playoffs. He did finish 9th at Richmond, but does tend to run well at Dover in his career.

Over 17 starts at DIS, Keselowski has 1 win, 5 Top 5’s, 8 Top 10’s, and an average finish of 13.2. In the spring, Brad finished 6th and he finished 10th at last year’s fall race at Dover. Of note, Brad led 108 laps in the spring Dover race this year, which was the second most behind only the race winner Harvick.

The Best Gander Outdoors 400 Betting Value

The following drivers offer solid betting value this weekend based on their history at this track and their current betting odds:

Chase Elliott (+1200)

As of the beginning of the 2nd round, Elliott currently sits below the cutoff line for advancing into the next round of the playoffs. However, Elliott will welcome the sight of Dover as he holds the best average finish among active drivers at 5th.

In Chase’s 5 career starts, he has 4 Top 5’s and 4 Top 10’s. His worst finish came this spring when he ended up in 12th. Last year, Elliott was the runner-up in the Dover fall race.

Chase ran well at The Roval last weekend with a 6th place finish. Two weekends ago, he finished 4th at Richmond. I’d say that he bounced back nicely after his playoff opening finish of 36th at Vegas.

With two strong weeks of racing, and a great career average finish at Dover, Chase provides excellent betting value for the Gander Outdoors 400 this Sunday.

Kurt Busch (+2000)

Kurt Busch currently sits in 7th place for the playoffs. He had a strong 5th place running at The Roval last weekend, which was an improvement from 18th at Richmond and 21st at Vegas. However, Kurt will need at least a Top 5 this weekend in order to strengthen his playoff spot.

In 36 career starts at Dover, Kurt Busch has 1 win, 8 Top 5’s and 10 Top 10’s. Like his brother, Kurt also has 7 DNFs and an average finish of 18.3. However, Kurt did finish 5th in the spring race at Dover.

Kurt has started well in the playoffs with a pole last weekend, 5th at Richmond and 8th at Vegas. With the rain washing out qualifying for this weekend, Kurt is going to get another Top 8 starting spot. Will he be able to capitalize on that and maintain a Top 10 car all race long?

The Best Longshot to win at Dover

Daniel Suarez at +5000 is my longshot pick of the week. In 3 career races at Dover, Suarez has an average finish of 5.7. His lowest finish was 8th in the fall race last year. This spring, Suarez finished 3rd. Daniel has had an up and down season so far. In 29 races he only has 3 Top 5’s and 7 Top 10’s. However, this is a track that he seems to have figured out in his young career. I like his chances this weekend because he has no pressure to compete for playoff points and can take whatever risks he wants in order to go for the checkered flag.

Gander Outdoors 400 NASCAR Prop Bet: Driver Matchups

The following NASCAR prop bets are courtesy of 5Dimes. In these bets, you have to pick which driver you think will have the higher finish.

Clint Bowyer (-130) vs Ryan Blaney (+100)

Ryan Blaney is rolling into Dover with a lot of luck and momentum on his side. Blaney won at The Roval last weekend, which cemented his advancement to the 2nd Round of the playoffs. Ryan was the benefactor of a last lap crash between the leaders Truex and Johnson. Unfortunately, I believe Blaney’s luck runs out this weekend and in this matchup.

In 5 career races at Dover, Blaney has only 2 Top 10’s and an average finish of 21.8. His highest finish is 8th place, which he did in the spring and in 2016. Bowyer has 25 career starts at Dover with 3 Top 5’s, 14 Top 10’s, and an average finish of 12.5. Clint was 2nd in the spring Dover race this year.

For the year, Bowyer has more wins, more Top 5’s, and the same amount of Top 10’s as Blaney. I believe Bowyer’s experience will give him the advantage over Blaney’s recent run of success. Go with Bowyer in this matchup.

Kyle Busch (-170) vs Kyle Larson (+140)

Typically, I like to avoid matchups between Top 5 candidates at a track, but this weekend I really feel that Kyle Busch is going to be one of the top drivers at Dover. Larson has a better average finish, but he hasn’t won at this track and Busch has won 3 times. Furthermore, Kyle Busch runs strong in the fall race at Dover and he should finish in the Top 3 this weekend. I think Larson will finish somewhere between 8 and 10. Go with Kyle Busch to win the “battle of Kyles.”

Joey Logano (-135) vs Erik Jones (+105)

It seems like I pick on Erik Jones a lot, but I don’t. It’s just that betting sites seem to put him against other drivers who I believe have a better chance at winning the race. Case in point, I like Joey Logano at this track and this matchup.

In 19 career starts, Kogano has an average finish of 14.1, 3 Top 5’s, and 10 Top 10’s. Jones has only 3 starts with an average finish of 15th, but no Top 5’s or Top 10’s.

In the spring Dover race, Logano finished 13th and Jones finished 18th. However, with Joey still in the playoffs, I believe he will have more success this weekend than Jones. Erik’s best finish was 12th, and Logano has a couple 3rd place finishes in the fall races at this track. Go with Logano to win this matchup.

Gander Outdoors 400 Checkered Flag

The 4th race of the postseason is going to be an exciting one. I don’t see any driver running away with this like Harvick did in the spring. I expect the Big 3 to compete for the checkered flag along with Chase Elliott. I think Chase Elliott will contend for a checkered flag as well.

The wildcard in this race is Jimmie Johnson. If he was still in contention for a championship, I would’ve picked him to win this race. JJ has 11 career wins at Dover in 33 races. I believe he still gets a Top 10, but he could finish anywhere from Top 3 to 10th depending on how this race unfolds. Other Top 10 drivers will be Bowyer, Larson, Kurt Busch, Keselowski, and Logano.

This race is tough to pick a winner for. Any of the Big 3 can win this race on Sunday. I think it’s going to come down to Truex and Kyle Busch for the win. Truex should’ve won last weekend, but was robbed of a victory by JJ. So, I’m going to give him the win this weekend over Kyle Busch.

My Top 5 Drivers

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Kyle Busch
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Chase Elliott
  • Clint Bowyer

Gander Outdoors 400 Betting Recap

Winner: Martin Truex Jr. (+400)

Betting Value: Chase Elliott (+1200) and Kurt Busch (+2000)

Longshot: Daniel Suarez (+5000)

Driver Matchups:

  • Clint Bowyer (-130) over Blaney
  • Kyle Busch (-170) over Larson
  • Joey Logano (-135) over Jones

Dover International Speedway Fun Facts

The following Dover International Speedway (DIS) fun facts were compiled from numerous NASCAR resources:

  • The first NASCAR Cup race was in 1969 and won by Richard Petty.
  • The first fall race at DIS was run in 1971.
  • Richard Petty won both of the first races at DIS.
  • Jimmie Johnson has the most career wins at DIS with 11. He also has the most fall race wins with 5.
  • Mark Martin has the most Top 5’s and Top 10’s at Dover.
  • David Pearson has won the most poles at DIS with 6. Newman leads all active drivers with 4.
  • Ricky Rudd has the most career laps at DIS with 23,387.
  • Jimmie Johnson has led the most laps at this track with 3,105.
  • David Marcis holds the record for 54 races without a win.
  • Ricky Rudd holds the record with 56 career races at Dover.
  • Rick Hendrick has the most team/owner wins at Dover with 19. He has 9 of those wins in the fall race.
  • 13 drivers have won at Dover after starting on the Pole. Johnson last accomplished this feat in 2010.
  • 58% of the time (56 out of 97), a driver in the Top 5 has won at Dover.
  • 77% of the time (76 out of 97), a driver in the Top 10 has won at Dover.
  • The most lead changes in a Dover race was 29 back in 1986 and 1980.
  • The most cautions in a DIS race was back in 1993 as there were 16 yellow flags.
  • In 1974, Richard Petty led the most ever laps in a DIS race with 491. With the race only being 400 laps now, this record will never be broken.
  • Only 10 times has a driver won both races at Dover in the same year: David Pearson (1973), Bobby Allison (1983), Bill Elliott (1988), Dale Earnhardt Sr (1989), Rusty Wallace (1994), Jeff Gordon (1996), Tony Stewart (2000), Jimmie Johnson (2002), Ryan Newman (2003), and Jimmie Johnson (2009).
  • Jimmie Johnson is the only driver to sweep the season races at Dover on two separate occasions.
  • David Pearson (72-73), Rusty Wallace (93-94), and Jeff Gordon (95-96) are the only drivers to win this race 3 consecutive times.
  • Chase Elliott has the best average finish of 5th out of all drivers with 3 or more starts at DIS.
  • Bobby Isaac has the best average start of all-time at 2.2. This is based on drivers with at least 3 career starts at Dover.
  • Jeff Gordon holds the record for most earnings in a career at Dover with $5.31 million dollars.
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