Pacquiao vs Matthysse: Betting Preview, Odds and Predictions
On Sunday, July 15th, the great Manny Pacquiao will step back into the ring to challenge Lucas Matthysse for the WBA Welterweight Title after a one-year hiatus. The fight will be live from the Axiata Arena in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, which marks the first time in 43 years that the country will host a major boxing fight. To broadcast this fight during the prime time hours in America, the bout was scheduled for Sunday morning in Malaysia. ESPN+ will air the fight live beginning around 9pm ET.
Another “first” for this fight is that the former 8-division champion Pacquiao will be going into a boxing match without his longtime trainer Freddie Roach for the first time since 2001. Will this have a huge impact on the welterweight championship bout?
Manny Pacquiao Career Record
This fight marks the 69th time that the legendary Filipino fighter Manny Pacquiao steps into the ring. He currently sports a 59-7-2 record and has 38 knockouts in his 59 wins. The following is a quick look at Manny’s illustrious career courtesy of Wikipedia:
|Opponent||Fight Results||Record||Fight #|
|Floyd Mayweather Jr.||Loss||UD||57–6–2||65|
|Juan Manuel Márquez||Loss||KO||54–5–2||61|
|Juan Manuel Márquez||Win||MD||54–3–2||59|
|Oscar De La Hoya||Win||RTD||48–3–2||53|
|Juan Manuel Márquez||Win||SD||46–3–2||51|
|Marco Antonio Barrera||Win||UD||45–3–2||50|
|Juan Manuel Márquez||Draw||SD||38–2–2||42|
|Marco Antonio Barrera||Win||TKO||38–2–1||41|
|Jorge Eliecer Julio||Win||TKO||34–2–1||37|
|Edmund Enting Ignacio||Win||UD||1–0||1|
Lucas Matthysse Career Record
This fight marks the 45th time that Matthysse steps into the ring. He has a career record of 39-4-1 with staggering 36 knockouts. The following is a quick look at Lucas Matthysse’s fight career:
|Opponent||Fight Result||Record||Fight #|
|Tewa Kiram||Win||KO||39–4 (1 NC)||44|
|Emmanuel Taylor||Win||TKO||38–4 (1 NC)||43|
|Viktor Postol||Loss||KO||37–4 (1 NC)||42|
|Ruslan Provodnikov||Win||MD||37–3 (1 NC)||41|
|Roberto Ortiz||Win||KO||36–3 (1 NC)||40|
|John Molina Jr.||Win||KO||35–3 (1 NC)||39|
|Danny García||Loss||UD||34–3 (1 NC)||38|
|Lamont Peterson||Win||TKO||34–2 (1 NC)||37|
|Mike Dallas Jr.||Win||KO||33–2 (1 NC)||36|
|Ajose Olusegun||Win||TKO||32–2 (1 NC)||35|
|Humberto Soto||Win||RTD||31–2 (1 NC)||34|
|Martín Ángel Martínez||Win||TKO||30–2 (1 NC)||33|
|Sergio Omar Priotti||Win||KO||29–2 (1 NC)||32|
|Devon Alexander||Loss||SD||28–2 (1 NC)||31|
|DeMarcus Corley||Win||TKO||28–1 (1 NC)||30|
|Zab Judah||Loss||SD||27–1 (1 NC)||29|
|Rogelio Castañeda Jr.||Win||KO||27–0 (1 NC)||28|
|Vivian Harris||Win||TKO||26–0 (1 NC)||27|
|Florencio Castellano||Win||KO||25–0 (1 NC)||26|
|Luis Ernesto José||Win||KO||24–0 (1 NC)||25|
|Carlos Adán Jerez||Win||UD||23–0 (1 NC)||24|
|Rogelio Castañeda Jr.||NC||NC||22–0 (1 NC)||23|
|Esteban de Jesus Morales||Win||KO||20–0||20|
|Ariel Francisco Burgos||Win||KO||19–0||19|
|Diego Jesús Ponce||Win||KO||16–0||16|
|Justo Evangelista Martínez||Win||KO||15–0||15|
|Hernan Abraham Valenzuela||Win||TKO||13–0||13|
|Victor Daniel Rios||Win||KO||12–0||12|
|Hernan Abraham Valenzuela||Win||RTD||11–0||11|
|Vicente Luis Burgo||Win||KO||10–0||10|
|Jorge Alberto Carballo||Win||TKO||9–0||9|
|Marcelo Omar Lazarte||Win||RTD||8–0||8|
|Jesus Ceferino Vergara||Win||RTD||7–0||7|
|Nestor Fabian Sanchez||Win||TKO||6–0||6|
|Hugo Antonio Aquino||Win||KO||5–0||5|
|Adan Basilio Mironchik||Win||KO||4–0||4|
|Luis Roberto Aguilar||Win||TKO||2–0||2|
Pacquiao vs Matthysse Betting Odds
The following is a list of current betting odds courtesy of 5Dimes.com:
- Manny Pacquiao -185
- Lucas Matthysse +160
Pacquiao will go down in the history books as the better fighter of the two, but neither one of these guys is lighting up the sport of boxing right now.
The 35-year old Matthysse is on a two fight winning streak, has won 4 out of 5, and 8 out of his last 10 bouts. Lucas looked utterly broken in his fight against Viktor Postol roughly 3 years ago. By all accounts, many pundits wrote off Matthysse as being anything other than a finished fighter. From there, he would go on to win his next two fights and the vacant WBA welterweight title. Even with those accomplishments, Matthysse is not the same fighter he was over 5 years ago when he was a top contender in his division. There was a time when just the name of Lucas Matthysse would signal to boxing fans that they were going to be in for an exciting fight. Nowadays, not so much.
Manny Pacquiao lost his last fight in highly controversial fashion. Pacquiao has gone 3-2 in his last 5 fights and 6-4 in his last 10 fights. Many fans and pundits have been calling for Pacquiao to retire, but the Senator keeps on fighting. However, it’s obvious that Manny is no longer the elite fighter he used to be. In December, Manny turns 40 years old and may or may not keep fighting. It’s clear that he loves the sport of boxing, but at what point does he begin to damage his legacy?
As mentioned above, Pacquiao is going into this fight without Freddie Roach. His longtime friend and assistant trainer Buboy Fernandez will be the corner general for this fight. Fernandez is publicly declaring that Pacquiao will be a different monster for this bout. As of now, we’re not sure what “monster” he will be: the fighter that knocks out his opponents or the fighter that tries to win on points?
Prop Bets for Pacquiao vs Matthysse
With a big fight like this, we have plenty of betting options in addition to the moneylines. The following is a list of prop bets courtesy of 5Dimes.com:
Going the distance: Yes (-245) and No (+175)
I believe this fight has a decent chance of going the distance. Pacquiao isn’t the knockout artist he used to be. Twelve out of Manny’s last thirteen fights have all gone the distance including the last seven straight. For his career, Pacquiao has 21 decisions. Roughly 30% of his fights have ended in a decision victory for him. And he also has another 4 decision losses on his resume.
Matthysse has 36 knockouts in 39 victories. He’s only been ko’d once in his career, but that makes 37 out of his 44 career fights ending in a KO or TKO. He doesn’t try to fight for a decision. Matthysse is willing to mix it up and go for the finish. However, Manny might be better off using his experience to outbox Matthysse and push for a decision rather than risk mixing it up and taking a massive shot.
I believe this fight will go the distance. Bet the Yes on this one at -245.
Fight ends in a draw: Yes (+1800) and No (-2800)
Although the odds of this fight ending in a Draw are close to zero, there’s no betting value in betting on the No. My best advice is to just avoid this prop bet.
Wins inside the distance: Matthysse (+335) and Pacquiao (+485)
As mentioned above, I believe this fight has a better chance of going the distance than finishing inside of the 12 rounds. But, I do like the value here, especially with Pacquiao. Matthysse probably has the power advantage at this point in their respective careers, but Manny is a great counter puncher and can overwhelm his opponents with a large volume of punches. I don’t see Matthysse backing down, so there is a chance that one of the two fighters can catch a knockout shot. Go with Manny at +485.
Matthysse Wins via 12 round decision (+415)
If this fight goes the distance, I don’t see Matthysse taking a decision unless this is the same group of judges from the Jeff Horn fight. More than likely, if Lucas were to win, it would be due to a KO or TKO.
Pacquiao wins via 12 round decision (-110)
This prop bet is the most likely outcome for the fight. As mentioned above, 12 out of Manny’s last 13 fights have gone to a decision. For his career, Manny has won 21 fights via decision and I believe that this will be number 22.
Final Words on the Big Fight
There used to be a time when a Pacquiao fight was a must see event. Unfortunately, those days are over with. For those that hope to see a good fight between two fighters on the decline then I believe you will enjoy this action. Pacquiao and Matthysse match up well together. Lucas wants to finish the fight, so that will put him in a position for Pacquiao to hit. Manny won’t have to chase after Matthysse as he will be looking for Manny. Unless Matthysse can rock Pacquiao with a big shot, I believe that Manny will win this fight most likely by a 12 round Unanimous Decision.
Pacquiao vs Matthysse Betting Recap
- Winner: Manny Pacquiao (-185)
- Length of Fight: Goes the full 12 rounds (-245)
- Fight Result: Manny Pacquiao wins via Decision (-110)