The Complete UFC 238 Cejudo vs Moraes Betting Guide, Odds and Picks

by Rick Rockwell
on June 7, 2019
12

Minute Read

On Saturday, June 8th, the UFC will be live from the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, for UFC 238: Cejudo vs Moraes. This action packed card features some of the promotion’s biggest names in the main event, as Henry Cejudo takes on Marlon Moraes for the vacant bantamweight title. Cejudo is also the current UFC flyweight champion.

The co-main event will be a women’s flyweight championship fight as Valentina Shevchenko defends her title against Jessica Eye. And if those two fights weren’t enough to make you want to see this PPV, the third-highest billed fight is a lightweight battle between Tony Ferguson and Donald Cerrone. There are five women’s fights and two championship bouts scheduled for this 13-fight UFC card. The preliminary portion of this event will begin at 6:15 PM ET and the main card PPV will begin at 10 PM ET.

UFC betting sites have released their MMA odds for the full slate of UFC 238 fights. Let’s step inside the betting octagon and examine these current UFC 238 betting lines, identify possible betting value or upsets, and KO our picks.

Opening Prelims for UFC 238

The opening portion of preliminary fights features four bouts and is set to begin at 6:15 PM ET on ESPN+. All betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline.

Katlyn Chookagian (11-2) vs Joanne Calderwood (13-3)

  • Katlyn Chookagian (-115)
  • Joanne Calderwood (-105)

MMA betting sites view this matchup as a close one, as two women fighters look to move up the rankings and close in on a potential title shot.

Katlyn Chookagian joined the UFC 35 months ago and has gone 4-2 since then. She lost in December 2018, which snapped her three-fight winning streak. That streak, and a win in her last outing, could’ve put her in line for a title shot, but her previous opponent Jessica Eye won and got the title shot instead.

Joanne Calderwood has won two straight fights after dropping two in a row to Calvillo and Andrade. She’s been with the UFC since late 2014 and has gone 5-3 inside the octagon. She also had a decent run on TUF 20 before losing to Namajunas.

This fight could really go either way. Chookagian is a volume puncher who has the ability to overwhelm her opponents on way to a decision victory. Katlyn has eight decision wins out of 11 career victories. Calderwood appears to have more pop than her opponent and has better wrestling skills. She has seven decision wins out of 13 career victories. Another five wins have come via KO/TKO.

As you can see, these two women go to the scorecards more often than not. 10 of Chookagian’s 12 fights have gone the distance, whereas Calderwood has gone the distance in eight of her 16 pro fights. I’m leaning toward Calderwood to win this fight via Split Decision if it stays a standup affair or Unanimous Decision if she can get this fight to the mat. Either way, Calderwood gets the decision victory.

UFC Bet: Joanne Calderwood (-105)

Grigory Popov (14-2) vs Eddie Wineland (23-13-1)

  • Grigory Popov (+111)
  • Eddie Wineland (-131)

Grigory Popov will make his debut for the UFC on Saturday after pummeling opponents on the international scene. He hails from one of the best Muay Thai camps in the world and is a very dangerous striker. Popov has won nine straight fights to earn this UFC appearance.

Eddie Wineland is a veteran of the fight game with 37 pro fights. Albeit, he’s taken his share of losses along the way. Wineland is 5-7 inside the octagon since debuting in 2011. Eddie has lost his last two fights via UD after winning two fights in a row via TKO.

This matchup is all about Popov’s takedown defense. If Wineland decides to take Popov to the mat, there’s not much he can do to stop it. However, if Popov can keep the fight at a distance by taking out Eddie’s lead leg and throwing some jabs, then he has a shot at dictating the fight and winning.

Wineland in his prime would’ve easily won this fight. Unfortunately, he’s not in his prime. Although he is technically younger than Popov, Wineland has a lot of wear and tear on his body. With that said, I still think he’s going to win this fight. This is a bad matchup for Popov, because Wineland is capable of taking him down frequently. The UFC should’ve put Grigory Popov in a matchup with another pure striker.

UFC Bet: Eddie Wineland (-131)

Bevon Lewis (6-1) vs Darren Stewart (9-4)

  • Bevon Lewis (-230)
  • Darren Stewart (+195)

Bevon Lewis comes into this fight as a large UFC 238 betting favorite. He’s the second largest betting favorite of the prelim fights. That’s largely due to his well-rounded striking and capable wrestling skills. Lewis earned his UFC debut after winning two DWTNCS fights. Unfortunately, his octagon debut didn’t go well as he lost via KO in the third round after looking like he was going to win via decision.

Darren Stewart has been in the UFC since November 2016. However, he hasn’t fared well. His debut fight ended in an NC after an accidental head-butt. From there, he lost three straight fights before winning two in a row. Unfortunately, that two-fight win streak was ended last November when he lost via Split Decision to Shahbazyan.

I don’t like this matchup for Stewart. It almost feels like the UFC wants to get rid of him so they put him in a fight with a better striker and better wrestler. The advantage for Lewis don’t stop there as he also has a five-inch reach advantage and is three inches taller. There’s no reason for Lewis to lose this fight other than allowing Darren Stewart to land a lucky KO shot out of nowhere just like he did with Uriah Hall last December.

I don’t see Lewis making that mistake two fights in a row. I’m taking Lewis to win via TKO as he either finishes this upright or with some ground and pound.

UFC Bet: Bevon Lewis (-230)

Xiaonan Yan (10-1) vs Angela Hill (9-6)

  • Xiaonan Yan (-192)
  • Angela Hill (+167)

Xiaonan “Fury” Yan fights up to her nickname. She is either going to unleash fury and KO/TKO her opponent, or she’s going to overwhelm her opponents with fury for all three rounds. Yan hasn’t lost in nearly nine years (her third pro fight). And that loss was via submission. Since joining the UFC in November 2017, Yan has won all three of her fights via UD.

Angela Hill is in her second stint with the UFC after going 1-2 in her first stint. She then moved on to Invicta where she had success winning four straight fights. That earned her a trip back to the UFC where she’s gone 3-4. Hill won in April, which snapped a two-fight skid. Six of her nine wins have come via decision.

Either we get a TKO along the way or this fight is going the distance. I believe both women will oblige the other with a standup striking affair, and I see that leading to a fight that goes the full three rounds. 10 of Hill’s 15 pro fights have gone the distance. Five of Yan’s 11 pro fights have gone the distance. I’m taking Yan to win this fight via UD.

UFC Bet: Xiaonan Yan (-192)

Second Portion of UFC 238 Prelims

The second portion of preliminary fights will air on ESPN beginning at 8 PM ET. There are four fights scheduled for this portion of the card with UFC betting odds courtesy of BetOnline:

Ricardo Lamas (19-7) vs Calvin Kattar (19-3)

  • Ricardo Lamas (+146)
  • Calvin Kattar (-171)

Lamas might have the nickname of “The Bully,” but it’s been Ricardo who has been bullied as of late. He’s lost two of his last three fights and is 3-3 in his last six UFC fights. Ricardo Lamas is a mid-tier fighter in the 145-pound weight class. He’s beaten most of the opponents he should beat and he’s lost to the better ones. That trend could continue this weekend as Lamas is a notable underdog and is three inches shorter than Calvin Kattar.

Kattar is 3-1 inside the octagon and went 2-1 in his three fights last year. Kattar hasn’t fought since October 2018, but does have eight KO/TKO wins in 19 career victories. Another eight wins have come via Decision. His loss to Carneiro 14 months ago snapped a 10-fight win streak. Eight of those wins are what actually brought him to the big dance.

This fight should be a fun one to watch as both athletes like to strike and neither poses a dominant ground game. Lamas could be the more dangerous striker of the two and also has a nice ground and pound, but he lacks in the takedown department. Kattar can defend the takedown, but he doesn’t have elite takedown skills himself. So, we are most likely looking at a striking battle for three rounds.

With that said, Lamas certainly has a puncher’s chance in this fight. The smart money is with Kattar, but Lamas could be a risky flier for those bettors looking to nail some possible upsets.

UFC Bet: Calvin Kattar (-171)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-4) vs Alexa Grasso (10-2)

  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-125)
  • Alexa Grasso (+105)

Karolina used to be one of the higher ranked female fighters in the UFC. She does hold a win over Namajunas roughly 35 months ago. Unfortunately, she dropped four of her next five fights after defeating Namajunas including her last two in a row. Karolina Kowalkiewicz last fought a little over two months ago and lost via UD to Waterson. 11 of her 16 pro fights have gone the distance.

Grasso came into the UFC 9-0 and a top prospect after going 4-0 with Invicta FC. She won her octagon debut in November 2016 but has gone 1-2 since then. She should’ve defeated Felice Herrig nearly 28 months ago, but she lost in an upset. She last fought 13 months ago and lost to Tatiana Suarez who is also on this card. Seven of her 12 pro fights have gone the distance.

Neither woman offers any substance on the mat. Therefore, I don’t really expect either one to go for takedowns and try to win via the ground game. Most likely, this will be a standup fight for three rounds, and that’s exactly how each woman likes it.

With that said, I’m going with Alexa Grasso to win this fight via UD. I think she is a better pure striker than Karolina. However, both women offer decent returns on their odds.

UFC Bet: Alexa Grasso (+105)

Aljamain Sterling (17-3) vs Pedro Munhoz (18-3)

  • Aljamain Sterling (-142)
  • Pedro Munhoz (+122)

Here’s an exciting bantamweight fight that could potentially set up a No. 1 contender for the new champ in the near future. Aljamain Sterling is the betting favorite who has won five of his last six fights, including three wins in a row. He last fought in February and beat Jimmie Rivera who is actually on the main card of this event. I’m surprised that this fight was not booked for the main card based on this being a matchup of two Top 5 ranked bantamweights.

Sterling will have a 6.5-inch reach advantage over Munhoz. Additionally, Sterling has gone to the scorecards in six of his last eight fights.

Pedro Munhoz last fought in March 2019. He knocked out Cody Garbrandt in a furious first-round fight. Munhoz has won seven of his last eight fights, but he did lose to Jimmie Rivera over three years ago. Munhoz has a solid guillotine which he has used to win six fights in his pro career.

Combined, these two men have 18 fights go the distance in their 42 pro contests. Unless we get a surprise TKO, I see this one also going the distance.

I’m torn on who I think will win. I like Munhoz’s deceptive power and his ability to choke out an opponent, but Sterling has solid wrestling skills. He also has a reach advantage that I believe will be the difference in this fight. Sterling should be able to keep Munhoz at a distance as he outpoints Pedro with strikes throughout the three rounds.

I’m taking Sterling to win via UD in what should be a solid fight.

UFC Bet: Aljamain Sterling (-142)

Tatiana Suarez (7-0) vs Nina Ansaroff (10-5)

  • Tatiana Suarez (-900)
  • Nina Ansaroff (+600)

Tatiana Suarez is the second biggest betting favorite of the night. She’s 4-0 inside the octagon if you include her win at TUF 23. She destroyed Esparza in her last fight, which was September 2018. Three of her five stoppage wins have come in the first round. Will we see a fourth one?

Nina has won four straight fights after starting off her UFC career with two straight losses. Her last three fights have gone the distance as she scored the UD win. Nina Ansaroff is a massive underdog, but she does have legit striking skills. This is a fight that Suarez doesn’t want to get caught up going toe-to-toe in.

Suarez is a smothering fighter once she gets her opponent to the mat. And she has such dominating wrestling skills that the rest of the division really can’t hang with her. I expect Tatiana to take this fight to the mat with ease. Once that happens, she will either get the TKO from ground and pound or she will find a limb to latch on to. Either way, Suarez will win this fight via stoppage.

UFC Bet: Tatiana Suarez (-900)

UFC 238 Main Card

The main card of the UFC 238 event features five fights and is set to begin at 10 PM ET on PPV. This loaded portion of the event has two world title bouts and betting odds via BetOnline:

Tai Tuivasa (8-1) vs Blagoy Ivanov (17-2)

  • Tai Tuivasa (-137)
  • Blagoy Ivanov (+117)

Tuivasa has eagerly waited to get back into the octagon after the first loss of his career last December, when he suffered a TKO defeat to Junior dos Santos. Since then, Tai has worked hard on his grappling and defensive skills in addition to his conditioning. He’s not afraid of losing, but he doesn’t want to make a habit of it. Seven of his eight wins have come via TKO/KO.

Blagoy Ivanov is fighting on a three-month turnaround and looking to move back up the division rankings. He defeated Rothwell in March but also lost to Junior dos Santos last year. However, he went the full distance against dos Santos unlike Tai Tuivasa. 12 of Ivanov’s 17 wins have come via stoppages. However, he does have three fights in a row that have gone to the judges.

As for his opponent this weekend, Ivanov made the following comments as reported by BJPENN.com:

“He’s a tough young guy. I’m excited to fight this guy. His style is very attractive, he likes more standup so it will be a good fight. His ground and pound is not very good. I have more experience than him and I spent more time in the cage. We will see, but you never know. One punch can change everything so you never know.”

Ivanov is right about two things: This will be a good fight, and one punch can definitely change the landscape of this heavyweight contest.

Tai has power in his hands, which Blagoy has to be cautious of. In his two UFC fights, Ivanov didn’t attempt to take the fight to the mat despite his mat grappling skills. To win this fight, he will have to go to the ground. I don’t see Blagoy winning a striking competition with Tuivasa, but I can see him winning via UD if he takes the fight to the mat.

I’m going with the slight upset for this contest. I believe Ivanov can hang with Tuivasa standing up for as long as it takes to get Tai to the mat. However, if Blagoy Ivanov doesn’t attempt any takedowns, then I don’t see him winning this fight. It will all come down to Ivanov’s takedown attempts.

UFC Bet: Blagoy Ivanov (+117)

Jimmie Rivera (22-3) vs Petr Yan (12-1)

  • Jimmie Rivera (+275)
  • Petr Yan (-325)

There was a time when Jimmie Rivera was one of the top fighters in the division. Unfortunately, that was at least two years ago. During that time, he won his first five UFC fights including wins over Pedro Munhoz and Urijah Faber. However, in the last 23 months, Rivera has gone 1-2 inside the Octagon with losses to Sterling and Moraes. Both fighters are ranked higher than Jimmie in the division and both are on this card. Moraes is in the main event for the vacant bantamweight title and Munhoz is taking on Sterling on the prelims. 16 of Rivera’s 22 pro wins have come via decision.

At age 26, Petr Yan is arguably one of the most exciting fighters in the division. He’s won four straight fights since joining the UFC and seven overall. He has wins over Dodson and Magomedov during that span. Yan is a pressure fighter, which has endeared him to fans and the bookmakers. This fight should’ve been lower on the card considering that Sterling and Munhoz are ranked higher in the division. Nevertheless, if Yan can win this fight, then he will be on the cusp of a title shot. In fact, Yan told MMA Fighting he is hoping for that shot before the year comes to an end:

“I don’t know what the UFC will decide. It will be my fifth fight inside one year and it took these other guys a lot more fights to get to the same place in the division as me. It would be great to fight for that belt in 2019, right before the New Year. The UFC can count on me, and if they want me to be next, I never let them down, so I’ll do what I have to do.”

Petr Yan is ready to take on Cejudo or Moraes in his next fight, whichever fighter has the title. But it’s hard to accept that he would jump over the winner of Sterling and Munhoz. With that said, I do expect Yan to win this fight.

Petr will pressure Rivera from the opening bell. I expect Yan to close the gap quickly and smother Rivera all fight long. I believe Rivera’s days as a relevant player in this division are over. Yan is quickly becoming a force to be reckoned with in the division and a strong win on Saturday will be just the kind of statement that he needs to make in order to move to the front of the line.

If Yan is unable to score a TKO, then I believe he will win via UD.

UFC Bet: Petr Yan (-325)

Tony Ferguson (24-3) vs Donald Cerrone (36-11)

  • Tony Ferguson (-138)
  • Donald Cerrone (+118)

For me, and many others, this is the fight I’m most excited about. This will be a war between two intense fighters who define what it means to be a warrior inside the cage.

Ferguson is returning to the cage for the first time since last October. Since then, he has been involved in some domestic issues that became highly publicized. Some critics even wondered if Ferguson was fit to return to the cage and resume his stellar MMA career. According to MMA Junkie, to his critics:

“When have I ever not been ready to take a fight? I’ve been doing this (expletive) for a long time. I’ve seen the ups and downs from a lot of different things… I’ve been around the block, man, and I know how to bounce back from anything.”

Ferguson is on an 11-fight win streak that has seen “El Cucuy” defeat Pettis, Lee, Rafael dos Anjos, and Barboza just to name a few. He’s a nasty fighter with highly proficient skills standing up and on the mat. In his 24 career wins, Ferguson has stopped 19 opponents (11 KO/TKO and eight submission). Tony has also only been stopped once in his career and that was a submission defeat back in 2009.

If there’s one fighter who is capable of going to war with Tony Ferguson, it’s Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. Ferguson is a vicious foe inside the octagon, but the Daily Star reports it’s nothing that the battle-tested :

“I’m better everywhere. I’ve seen everything, I’ve been in the fire and I’ve been in the trenches. Tony, I think you’re durable, super tough and set a high pace. But I also set a high pace. Bring this s**t on.”

2017 was a bad year for Cerrone who lost all three fights. Since February 2018, Cerrone has gone 4-1 and has impressive wins over Medeiros, Perry, Hernandez, and Iaquinta. In fact, his performance against Al Iaquinta was dominating and impressive. Iaquinta even had to give Cerrone credit for how well he fought.

For Cerrone to win this fight, he will have to duplicate his performance against Iaquinta. I think that it’s possible, but he last fought one month ago. I feel that this is a quick turnaround against a dangerous opponent and one that should favor Ferguson in the end.

This should be the “Fight of the Night” and the smart money is being laid on Ferguson. It’s hard for me to pick against Donald Cerrone considering I’m a big fan of his, but I believe Ferguson will edge this one out. I just hope that it goes the full distance and Tony wins via controversial Split Decision. Nevertheless, I am picking Ferguson to win.

UFC Bet: Tony Ferguson (-138)

(c) Valentina Shevchenko (16-3) vs Jessica Eye (14-6)

  • Valentina Shevchenko (-1600)
  • Jessica Eye (+900)

Valentina is the largest betting favorite on the card, and one of the largest favorites that we’ve seen for a UFC championship fight in a long time. Nicknamed “Bullet,” Valentina Shevchenko has won two straight fights since her loss to Nunes nearly two years ago. It’s a loss that Valentina would love to avenge. For that to happen, she would have to beat Jessica Eye, and Nunes would have to defeat Holm in her next fight.

Despite being a massive betting favorite, Shevchenko is not taking anything lightly. She’s always motivated to win and is prepared for whatever Jessica Eye throws at her:

“I’m not here to enjoy or have fun. I’m here to win the fight and keep the belt for a long time, as long a time as I can. For me, this is my motivation for martial arts. I’m ready for whatever she will bring. She’s telling everyone where she will push in or she will pressure, but it doesn’t matter for me. I’ve faced so many different kinds of opponents.”

Jessica Eye is a massive underdog despite having an emotional comeback story. She has won three straight fights including a win against Chookagian last December. Prior to that, Eye lost four straight fights and five of six. Those losses were to fighters like Correia, McMann and Tate. For her career, Eye is 4-5 with one NC inside the octagon. 15 of her 21 pro fights have gone the distance. She has a record of 10-5 in those fights.

Whatever Jessica can do, Valentina can do better. With a thin pool of fighters in the division, the UFC went with Eye for this fight despite the disparity in talent level. I believe Shevchenko will retain her title and do so via stoppage. 11 of her 16 career wins have come via stoppage. I see Valentina getting her 12th on this weekend.

As for the betting odds, Valentina offers no value. For those of you looking to bet on the underdogs, it doesn’t get any bigger than this one. The reward is worth the risk as long as you know that there’s a good chance that you are throwing away your money.

UFC Bet: Valentina Shevchenko (-1600)

Henry Cejudo (14-2) vs Marlon Moraes (22-5-1)

  • Henry Cejudo (+104)
  • Marlon Moraes (-124)

The main event of the night is for the vacant bantamweight title. And it features two exciting fighters looking to make history.

For Moraes, this is the biggest fight of his career. Sporting News states that he is going out there to show everyone :

“I want to get inside the Octagon, leave it all out there and prove to everyone (who the best bantamweight is). I think I belong in this championship fight and I’m ready to be a champion. I’m not going out there to have fun; I’m going out there to win. The belt is on the line – I’m hungry, I’m ready, and I can’t wait to fight.”

Moraes has won four straight fights including winning his last three fights in the first round. He put away Assuncao, Rivera, and Sterling all in the opening round. Those wins boosted his stock and made everyone take notice. If Dillashaw was still the champ, he would be in for a major test against Moraes. Instead, it will be Moraes taking on a different type of fighter in Henry Cejudo.

Cejudo is the current featherweight champ and he loves to remind everyone how he won an Olympic Gold Medal in wrestling. Overlooked is his success as an amateur boxer, which were on display when he crushed Dillashaw in their fight five months ago. Cejudo has already made history taking out the legendary Demetrious Johnson and Dillashaw all within five months. Now, he’s looking to become champ in two divisions. Will he succeed?

Marlon Moraes is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and has very dangerous striking skills. He has 10 KO/TKO wins in his 22 career victories. He knocked out both Rivera and Sterling in the first 67 seconds of their fights. Both men are on this card as well. But let’s not ignore that six of Cejudo’s 10 wins have come via KO/TKO. That’s pretty impressive for a wrestler. In his last two big time fights, Cejudo didn’t have to rely heavily on his wrestling. With that said, I think he will need to in this fight.

Moraes pointed out Cejudo’s wrestling skills, but also told MMA Fighting that Henry’s striking skills have improved a lot:

“He’s a great wrestler. He’s been improving every fight. He showed his last couple [of fights] his striking is getting way better. I’m excited. I’m excited to put on a show and prove I’m the best.”

Moraes isn’t the only one excited for this fight. All UFC fans and critics are excited for this matchup on Saturday night. It’s going to pit two accomplished fighters looking to out-punish the other. With that in mind, I believe that Cejudo will win this fight. I like his experience, confidence, and his performances against Dillashaw and Johnson. I believe his striking is underrated, and he will rely on his wrestling whenever things might get dangerous inside the octagon.

I like Cejudo’s betting odds as well. He provides a solid return as the underdog, and I believe the UFC is going to have its third “Champ Champ” in the last 18 months.

UFC Bet: Henry Cejudo (+104)

UFC 238 Betting Value

The following fighters offer solid UFC betting value based on their current MMA odds, UFC 238 matchups, and career success:

  • Joanne Calderwood (-105) and her opponent Chookagian (-115) offer solid betting value whichever way you bet. I’m taking Calderwood to win via decision, because I think she has more power and a better ground game.
  • Alexa Grasso (+105) is the underdog in her matchup with Kowalkiewicz (-125), but both women offer decent value. Grasso as the underdog offers a better return and is a better striker in my opinion. That’s why I see her winning this fight via UD after three rounds of punching each other in the face.
  • Blagoy Ivanov (+117) is the slight underdog to Tuivasa, but I believe he has a solid chance at winning this fight due to his ground game. If he commits to getting the Aussie off his feet, then Ivanov should win this fight via UD.
  • Henry Cejudo (+104) and Marlon Moraes (-124) both offer decent returns on their betting odds. With that said, I really like Cejudo to pull out the hard fought victory. His wrestling should be the difference with the featherweight champ scoring points in takedowns. Don’t be surprised if he has success in the standup game as well. Either way, this is going to be a very exciting fight.

Final Thoughts for UFC 238

UFC 238 is going to be an exciting event. The card is stacked with talent and some great fights. The bantamweight division is being heavily featured with four of the Top 5 fighters in the division on this card. Furthermore, the Cerrone vs Ferguson fight has the makings of an instant classic.

This event will surely deliver on the entertainment value. The betting value should also be there as well, especially if you want to be a risk taker and go for some of the massive underdogs. In the end, UFC 238 will be one of the best PPV events this year in all of MMA.

UFC 238 Betting Recap

  • Joanne Calderwood (-105)
  • Eddie Wineland (-131)
  • Bevon Lewis (-230)
  • Xiaonan Yan (-192)
  • Calvin Kattar (-171)
  • Alexa Grasso (+105)
  • Aljamain Sterling (-142)
  • Tatiana Suarez (-900)
  • Blagoy Ivanov (+117)
  • Petr Yan (-325)
  • Valentina Shevchenko (-1600)
  • Henry Cejudo (+104)
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at hot-casino.com to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.

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