UFC 205 Betting: Full Fight Card Odds and Predictions
UFC fans get what they’ve been waiting for in just one more week, when another Conor McGregor fight hits the Octagon with UFC 205 dropping down in Madison Square Garden on Saturday, November 12th.
The Notorious is without a doubt the big draw on the card’s main event, but this actually ends up being an uber stacked MMA event, with several other key matchups, including a killer showdown on the women’s side between two undefeated stars on the rise – Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
UFC 205 is stacked from top to bottom and there is a lot to get excited about – especially from an MMA betting perspective. Let’s take a quick look at every single matchup on the and see which way you may want to be leaning next week with your UFC betting:
Here's the official UFC 205 fight card line up. The 6 fight pay-per-view main card kicks off at 10pm ET.
— Chamatkar Sandhu (@SandhuMMA)
UFC 205 Prelim Odds and Picks
Liz Carmouche +155 vs. Katlyn Chookagian -190
The prelims are not overly exciting, but it’s possible we could see the rise of a star here, as Chookagian is undefeated (8-0) and will look to continue to prove her worth with a win over the battle tested Carmouche (9-5).
Bovada and most sites favor the unbeaten Chookagian, who hasn’t been amazing but has fought more recently than Carmouche (been away for over a year).
Pick: Chookagian via Decision
Rafael Natal -160 vs. Tim Boetsch +130
Fans should prepare for a slugfest between two very experienced MMA fighters, as submission expert Natal (21-7-1) will try to take the fight to the ground against the bigger Boetsch (19-10). Both of these guys are very battled tested and have undergone their lumps. They’re also completely different fighters, with Boetsch boasting superior striking and Natal having the edge on the floor.
The edge has to go to the more versatile Natal, who has won four of his last five fights. Boetsch needs to keep this fight standing up to win, while he backs into this one as a loser in four of his last six matches.
Pick: Natal via Submission
Jim Miller +135 vs. Thiago Alves -165
This is another showdown between two very experienced fighters, as Jim Miller (27-8) will likely aim to take this one to the ground against Alves (26-10), who would prefer to keep it as a striking game.
This fight favors Miller for two reasons, despite Alves actually taking the odds here, per Bovada. For one, Alves had to drop weight for this one, so he could come in with a little less energy and power. Miller also simply does not get knocked out, and considering Alves gets 50% of his wins by KO/TKO, that is probably going to be a pretty big deal.
Miller will look to take this one to the ground and we like him to get it done, delivering our first UFC 205 upset pick of the night.
Pick: Miller via Submission
Khabib Nurmagomedov -300 vs. Michael Johnson +230
This is a very interesting fight, as the Russian Khabib Nurmagomedov is a massive favorite and comes in at a remarkable 23-0. He’s proven to be a very versatile and obviously dominant fighter, but he gets a worthy foe in Johnson (18-10) who has good experience and provides serious striking power.
This is a tough spot to pick Khabib Nurmagomedov to finally lose his first MMA battle as a pro, but the odds could be fun with Johnson. That being said, Khabib Nurmagomedov has a title shot in his sight and he’s unlikely to blow it here.
Pick: Nurmagomedov via Submission
Rashad Evans +190 vs. Tim Kennedy -240
This is another fun UFC 205 preliminary fight, as both Evans (24-5-1) and Kennedy (18-5) have some good wins on their resume (both have taken down current champ, Michael Bisping) and probably have their eye on a title shot.
Kennedy looks to have the leg up in all regards, seeing as he comes in fairly hot with four wins in his last five trips to the Octagon. They’ve been good wins, too, with triumphs over Bisping and Rafael Natal and his most recent loss coming by the hands of the impressive Yoel Romero.
Kennedy is in the better spot and we agree with Vegas here. He’s proven to be the more versatile fighter and seems to be trending in a better direction.
Pick: Kennedy via Submission
Vicente Luque -167 vs. Belal Muhammad +134
This is a tough one, as Luque (10-5) comes in and replaced Lyman Good to take on Belal Muhammad. It’s a tough spot to be in, seeing as Muhammad has one loss (10-1) and is an excellent striker.
This is another misbalanced fight where one fighter, Luque, will look to submit on the ground and Muhammad will want to end this thing early with a knockout. Due to the short notice change and Muhammad’s superior striking, we’d roll with the mild underdog here.
Pick: Muhammad via KO
Frankie Edgar -340 vs. Jeremy Stephens +260
Easily the main attraction of the UFC 205 Prelims is Frankie Edgar (19-5-1), who welcomes UFC veteran Jeremy Stephens (25-12) to the Octagon.
This fight is a borderline insult to Edgar, who missed out on a title shot after losing to Jose Aldo and he’ll have to continue to work his way back to a potential title showdown with Conor McGregor. Who knows if that ever happens, but one thing we can bet on is Edgar not losing this fight by knockout or submission.
Few UFC fighters are as tough as Edgar, who has lost five times in his career by decision but has never been knocked out or submitted. Neither are likely to suddenly happen here, as Edgar is far and away the superior MMA master.
Pick: Edgar via Decision
Main Card Odds and Picks
Tyron Woodley +170 vs. Stephen Thompson -210
Finally, we get to the main card, where the worst fight to see here is Woodley (16-3) taking on Thompson (13-1). It’s quite remarkable that this is arguably the lamest fight on the main UFC 205 card, seeing as it’s a welterweight title bout between two very good fighters.
Woodley enters UFC 205 as the slight underdog to win and hold onto his title, but Thompson has been quite impressive. Wonder Boy has ripped off seven straight wins and finally has a chance to win the welterweight title and we think he just might do it.
Thompson’s meteoric rise has him entering this fight as the favorite, though that may be ambitious thinking even for a 33-year old who has displayed tremendous power in 7 KO wins. Still, Woodley has been pretty dominant, winning three straight with nice wins over Robbie Lawler and Kelvin Gastelum.
We’ll go against the grain here and side with Woodley getting a strong defense here.
Pick: Woodley via Decision
Chris Weidman -170 vs. Yoel Romero +140
The fights only get more intense from here on out, as Chris Weidman makes his long awaited return ever since losing the middleweight title to Luke Rockhold. He got mashed up pretty badly in that loss, but he’s still 13-1 and should come back with a vengeance.
Weidman naturally has his sights set on getting another title shot, so it’s tough to see him slipping up versus Romero. That being said, Romero has just one loss (11-1) himself, and has been a ferocious knockout hitter (82% of wins coming by KO). Given Romero’s size, strength, power and recent tear (7 straight wins), we’ll shoot for the underdog in this one.
Pick: Romero via KO
Kelvin Gastelum +145 vs. Donald Cerrone -175
The Cowboy hits the Octagon again, as Donald Cerrone (31-7) takes on Gastelum (13-2) in a pretty intense lightweight clash. Cerrone remains one of the nastiest, most versatile fighters in the UFC ranks, as he can knock opponents out or lull them to sleep and snuff them out via submission.
Cerrone’s versatility and hot streak (3 straight wins and victorious in 11 of last 12 fights) gives him the edge, and Vegas knows it. Gastelum is an interesting sleeper pick due to solid power and versatility, but he just is no match for the Cowboy.
Pick: Cerrone via Submission
Miesha Tate -175 vs. Raquel Pennington +145
It’s weird seeing Tate hit the Octagon without a title on the line, but that’s reserved for Ronda Rousey and Amanda Nunes next month and she’ll have to just secure her spot in line with a big win over the feisty Pennington.
Pennington is just 8-6, but she’s pretty experienced and can win in a variety of ways. Her best bet here is surprising Tate with a quick submission, but Tate is as determined and focused as they come. She also is great at adapting her skill-set to her opponent and with an eye on a title shot, we don’t see her coming up lame here.
Pick: Tate via Submission
Joanna Jedrzejcyk -380 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz +290
The headlining women’s fight comes down to a crazy battle of unbeatens, as Jedrzejczyk (12-0) and Kowalkiewicz (10-) both look to hand the other their first pro UFC loss.
The oddsmakers favor Jedrzejczyk greatly, as she has a little more experience and has been far more dominant thus far. This should be a great bout and while Jedrzejczyk is probably the superior fighter, in a battle of unbeaten, it might make sense to roll with the underdog. Both fighters are more scrappy than truly dominant and the (arguably) slightly superior striking of Kowalkiewicz could prove to be the difference.
Pick: Kowalkiewicz via KO
Conor McGregor -150 vs. Eddie Alvarez +120
"I'm going to go in and put on a show. He will be dismantled and put away and that'll be it."
— #UFCMexico (@ufc)
Here is the fight we’ve all been waiting for, as The Notorious gets back to what he does best: shutting up trash talkers like Eddie Alvarez. Probably, anyways.
Going into UFC 205’s main event, betting sites like Bovada are taking McGregor (20-3) to take this, even though Alvarez (28-4) has more experience and also has a pretty impressive resume.
Despite McGregor being the obvious favorite and trendy pick, we do need to be mildly worried about Alvarez, who has shown nice power and placement with his striking and also had the leg up on the ground. McGregor has never been knocked out or lost a Decision in his pro MMA career, though, so the real question is if Alvarez can trip him up into a submission, while also avoid a knockout.
McGregor has learned a lot during his two tough battles with Nate Diaz, and not getting submitted and learning to pick his spots are two valuable lessons that should help him a ton in this matchup.
Alvarez absolutely could stage the upset, but McGregor is the better striker and he is just not a guy that is easy to take down. Alvarez needs to win on the mat to take this one and a McGregor KO feels long overdue.
Pick: McGregor via KO