UFC 207 Betting: Ronda Rousey vs. Amanda Nunes Odds and Prediction

by Kevin Roberts
on December 28, 2016

It’s finally here. The Return sounds off on Friday, December 30th at the Madison Square Garden, when Ronda Rousey makes her long awaited comeback at UFC 207.

This isn’t just any comeback, either. This is the most dominant women’s UFC fighter in MMA history stepping back into the Octagon to shed darkness, to avenge her first ever professional MMA loss and to get back the women’s bantamweight title that is rightfully hers.

Then again, , it’s also about the roadblock that stands in her way. Amanda Nunes didn’t get here by accident. She’s risen up the UFC ranks as one of the more dangerous strikers and she took down one of the most balanced fighters in Meisha Tate to snag the title belt.

As massive as the headlining act at UFC 207 is, this is as hyped of a UFC event as we’ve seen in awhile due to the other fights that preclude it, as well. As big as this battle is, there is another huge title fight going down between Dominick Cruz and Cody Garbrandt, while we also see serious star power in the form of T.J. Dillashaw, Johny Hendricks and so much more.

UFC 207 is truly a UFC event to behold and no die hard MMA fan is going to be caught missing it.

Of course, as loaded as this event is come December 30th, it ultimately does boil down to one question: can Rousey win? Let’s dive into the UFC 207 odds and take it from both sides as we figure out who will win when Ronda Rousey and Amanda Nunes go toe to toe in three days:

Ronda Rousey vs. Amanda Nunes Odds

The hype surrounding Rousey’s return is rather intense, but adding to the intrigue is the growing expectation by fans, the media and sportsbooks that she will win. It’s fair to wonder if Rousey should actually be the favorite going into UFC 207, but considering she has one loss to her name and has had a year to prepare, it makes plenty of sense to see the best online gambling sites backing her.

Here’s a quick look at some of the best gambling sites and the Rousey vs. Nunes odds they’re offering:

  • ag – Rousey (-150) Nunes (+175): Updated 12/30
  • Bovada – Rousey (-175) Nunes (+145): Updated 12/30
  • BetOnline – Rousey (-175) Nunes (+150): Updated 12/30
  • TopBet – Rousey (-150) Nunes (+120)

There are more placed to bet on UFC 207 obviously, but these are some of the best betting sites you can bet on UFC action at and they all share similar UFC 207 odds. As you can see, Rousey enters Friday night’s main event as the favorite, but it’s still being called fairly tight and Nunes has about +120 or so odds at most sites you’ll stumble across.

This one looks like a pretty close call on paper, so let’s look at both fighters and see why either one could end up being the better bet at UFC 207.

Why Nunes Could Win

There is a lot working for Nunes. For one, she’s a fantastic fighter. If this fight stays off the ground, Nunes has the distinct advantage thanks to elite striking ability, raw power and exceptional quickness. Nunes can work both ways on her feet, too, as she is excellent at attacking, and can also defend.

The beauty here is it’s possible Nunes doesn’t even need to mash Rousey to beat her. Nunes also has displayed some stellar floor skills, which could put her in a good spot to end this match on the ground.

Nunes is also coming in ablaze, as she’s gotten over a few rough patches in her young career and has ripped off four straight wins. In addition, Nunes will be fairly well rested as she prepares for her first ever title defense. That alone could be huge, especially since as confident as Nunes is, she’s too smart to look past a determined Rousey for even a second.

This isn’t your usual title defense, as Nunes can shift all of the pressure onto Rousey’s return and she also won’t be at risk of overlook Rousey’s ability to take her down. With all things considered, Nunes is not a bad upset pick at all. She’s ready, she’s proven her ability and worth and she boasts superior striking ability.

Why Ronda Will Win

Of course, Rousey has encountered tough strikers like Nunes in the past. And aside from Holly Holm, she’s gotten past them all. In fact, she’s done so in dominant fashion, as we can’t just ignore her 12-0 run that started what was (and still is) a brilliant MMA career.

Nunes is a challenge and there is no getting around that. However, just before her recent tear, Nunes had some trouble against lesser fighters that Rousey dispatched fairly easily. One of them was Cat Zingano, who actually TKO’d Nunes. And who did Nunes beat to get the women’s bantamweight title in the first place? The one and only Miesha Tate, who Rousey twice tormented in two separate victories.

The biggest key to Rousey winning, however, may be that she’s as focused as she’s ever been:

Rousey had her world rocked and then some when she lost to Holm. Not only was she handed her first KO (and loss) with one kick to the head, but she was reportedly suicidal and had the perfect image of an unblemished fighter destroyed, for the world to see.

The old Ronda Rousey is gone, and for the new one to truly “return” and win back the women’s bantamweight title, she always had to be. The old Rousey wasn’t just confident, but she was cocky. She foolishly got outside of her strengths when it came to Holm, and played right into Holm’s hand. She’d also fallen in love with perfection, with fast victories and for winning fights how she felt she (or others) thought she should win them.

When champions fall, the first thing they tend to do is reflect, get back to the basics, return to their strengths and then adapt to their flaws. If Rousey is the champion we believed her to be, she didn’t waste the past year away from the Octagon. She spent that time becoming a better person, a better and more complete fighter and making sure she’d never look past an opponent again.

If that is the version of Rousey we see at UFC 207, she can’t lose.

Ronda Rousey vs. Amanda Nunes Prediction

One thing we’ve learned in the UFC is that title belts were made to be lost and/or exchanged. We’ve also learned that at some point there is always a “passing of the torch”. That doesn’t feel like it’s arrived yet for Rousey.

It’s surely possible that Rousey’s been preparing us for the end. Should she fall to Nunes, she would no longer be the perfect fighter who simply got caught off guard in one fight. She’d suddenly be something completely different and 0-2 in this new form.

Rousey has to (and will) return with a vengeance. The reality could be cut in half. Either Rousey was finally exposed once and for all by Holm a year ago, or the best women’s fighter the UFC has ever seen is going to silence her critics like few we’ve seen before.

The odds are tight, Nunes isn’t unbeatable and Rousey has had a year to prepare herself for this moment. With a rematch with Holm and other tantalizing fights potential still ahead of her, this isn’t the moment where Rousey fails again. Even if it is, we can’t find a way to force ourselves to bet against her.

One thing we know for sure, is Rousey has one loss and it came via a surprise knockout. She knows the type of fighter Nunes is and she’ll be sure to avoid a striking fight and work things to the ground. Once there, this is Rousey’s fight to lose.

Pick: Rousey via Submission
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