UFC 211 Betting: Stipe Miocic vs. Junior Dos Santos Odds and Prediction

by Kevin Roberts
on February 28, 2017

MMA fans are getting quite the show two months from now, when UFC 211 presents an intense fight card on Saturday, May 13th in Dallas, Texas.

Not only does UFC 211 carry two huge title fights with a nasty showdown between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade, but the second title fight offers up an intense battle between Stipe Miocic and Junior Dos Santos.

The heavyweight bout arguably takes the cake, but all eyes will be on UFC 211 when two of the best champions in mixed martial arts will put their titles on the line:

There has even been recent word of a huge fight between Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier, which only contributes to an increasingly stacked event:

It’s such a big fight card that the hype is already growing around UFC 211, while UFC 209 hasn’t even popped off yet. Fans are sure to get an intense show, and if the two title fights are any indication, the event as a whole will be a smashing success.

The big fight of that night is undoubtedly the headlining act between current heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic and Junior Dos Santos, of course. The two faced off back in 2013 at UFC on Fox, where Dos Santos took the win via Decision.

This highly anticipated rematch is set to carry major weight at UFC 211 and could potentially crown a new champion in the UFC heavyweight class.

Let’s take a look at the latest UFC 211 odds, each fighter’s skills and how the first meeting went down so we can gauge how their headlining act will go down in May:

UFC 211 – Stipe Miocic vs. Junior Dos Santos Odds

The top UFC betting sites are understandably giving current heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic the leg up here. One of our favorite and more trusted sites, Bovada, gives him -190 odds to retain his title belt at UFC 211:

  • Stipe Miocic Odds to Win (-190)
  • Junior Dos Santos Odds to Win (+155)

The logic here isn’t bad. Miocic is the champ, after all, and he’s looked fantastic on a wicked tear that has led to four straight victories and the heavyweight title since his loss to Dos Santos. That run includes big wins over Mark Hunt, Andrei Arlovski, Fabricio Werdum and Alistair Overeem.

All of those wins came from straight knockouts or referee stoppage because this heavy-hitting striker has been a total mad man. Beyond his power and ferocious finishing ability, of course, he gets a second crack at taking down Dos Santos.

Typically rematches tend to favor the fighter who previously lost, especially if the first match was remotely close. Miocic is a deadly striker, the first meeting ended in a Decision and if it happened the same way again, the scoring would probably lean his way this time.

Collectively, the logic is solid to support Miocic, who also could simply run away with another KO win here if all breaks right for him. Is that likely, though? Let’s take a closer look at how the first fight went down, as well as each fighter’s specific skill-set to find out.

Fight Breakdown

The first thing we need to know about these guys is they’re both tough as nails, they’re elite, powerful strikers and they’re both UFC heavyweight champions. Neither fighter is scared of this matchup, they know each other and in a lot of ways this is two brick walls ramming against each other – again.

Miocic vs. Dos Santos I

Obviously the best way to figure out the second go-around between these two guys is to first take a look at the first meeting. It happened almost three years ago now, but these two went at each other with full force and beat the living daylights out of each other.

See for yourself:

There are a couple of huge takeaways from this fight. For one, Miocic was not scared of Dos Santos and while he certainly got himself into a few jams and let in some really clean shots, he also displayed amazing toughness and countered all night. Getting that fight to completion was a win by itself for both fighters, as there were some very strong punches being thrown.

Another big lesson learned here is this was a very close fight to call. It could have easily gone Miocic’s way, but the scoring likely favored Dos Santos due to a more effective takedown. While this fight was extremely close and both fighters delivered some stellar blows, it’s pretty arguable Dos Santos deservedly took home the win.

Perhaps a third takeaway is the punches that never landed. Dos Santos tossed some vicious jabs and hooks in this fight and he missed badly a few times. You can argue solid defense or even luck for Miocic, and/or bad timing or blind gunning for Dos Santos.

Whatever the case, these are two world class knockout guys, as we haven’t even touched on their records or stats. Miocic has just two losses to his name, and has been knocked out just once in his pro MMA career. That came after starting his career a perfect 9-0, when he was dropped by one of the more versatile UFC fighters in Stefan Struve. Since that loss, Miocic is 7-1, with his only other loss coming to Dos Santos in 2014.

As we saw, Miocic is a big, physical fighter who has a strong stance and a ton of power behind his fists. He’s quick in his movement and is good at picking his spots as to when to be aggressive. That’s helped him convert 12 knockout wins out of his 16 career MMA victories and it makes him a very real threat to deliver a KO at UFC 211.

On the flip side, Dos Santos survived quite the beating the last time these two guys met and his impressive career includes just two KO defeats. That’s because Dos Santos has a steel chin and is extremely tough. He did succumb to two very powerful fighters in Alistair Overeem and Cain Velasquez, but if those are going to be a guy’s only two KO losses, he’s doing a pretty good job.

Dos Santos is a little more experienced than Miocic, overall a little more seasoned and a much bigger threat to do damage on the ground.

Of course, we just saw a full five-round example of what this UFC 211 title fight could be, though: a total bloodbath that may again go the distance.

UFC 211 Prediction – Who Wins?

Momentum is working in Stipe Miocic’s favor. The odds are, too. While those aren’t the only reasons to ever back a fighter, they could be important here, especially when we note how similar these fighters are when you look at their high level strengths.

It’s also worth noting after you go back and look at how even they were in the first meeting. Miocic already has proven he can beat Dos Santos. You could argue he already did back in 2014, and even if he didn’t, he needed scoring to lose that bout. He ultimately matched Dos Santos across the board and withstood a good beating.

That bleeds into Miocic not only wanting to defend his title, but push the pace a bit and try to get a knockout to eliminate any scoring impact here. He probably felt he won the first matchup and he may not like the idea of leaving a Decision to chance or interpretation.

It’s really tough to vote for a KO either way here just because these guys are so skilled and so tough, but most Miocic fights do not end in Decisions or losses. Instead, he’s been absolutely wrecking, taking down huge names en route to this insane rematch.

Titles were meant to be lost by the people holding them, and in such a competitive division like the heavyweight class, it’s just as difficult to deny a past champion like Junior Dos Santos. That being said, Miocic is on quite the roll right now and Dos Santos had his time in the sun. We think Miocic lands a vicious blow or two early and let’s everyone know this time that, without a doubt, he’s the better fighter.

Pick: Stipe Miocic via KO
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