UFC 226 Mioci vs Cormier Betting: Preview, Odds and Picks

by Rick Rockwell
on July 6, 2018
12

Minute Read

On Saturday, July 7th, UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier will be live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This PPV features a highly anticipated battle for the UFC heavyweight championship between Daniel Cormier and champion Stipe Miocic.

The fight card underwent some last minute shuffling after featherweight champion Max Holloway had to withdraw from the event due to concussion like symptoms. Holloway was to take on top contender Brian Ortega in what many pundits believed would steal the show. The UFC bumped a preliminary fight to the main fight card and is scheduled to only have 11 total fights now, instead of 12.

Here are the top sites we recommend for betting on the UFC 226:

Even without the previously scheduled semi-main event, UFC 226 will still have plenty of action to satiate even the most diehard fight fans. Let’s take a closer look at the fight card and the betting odds according to 5Dimes:

UFC 226 Fight Pass Preliminary Card Betting Odds

The following fights begin at 6:30 PM ET and will air on the UFC Fight Pass:

Lightweight Fight: Dan Hooker (-120) vs Gilbert Burns (+100)

Burns (13-2) comes into this fight having knocked out his last two opponents in the 2nd round. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu expert lit the UFC on fire when he first came to the company as he won his first 3 fights. Unfortunately, a 1-2 stretch knocked him down the ladder. With one foot out the door, Burns not only knocked out his last two opponents, but he also knocked out the growing chatter that his time may be up with the UFC.

Hooker (16-7) comes into this bout having won his last three fights. After struggling in the featherweight division, Dan “the Hangman” Hooker moved up to the lightweight division and has been on a roll. Hooker’s knockout of Jim Miller back in April was a thing of beauty and created quite the buzz. Hooker has a two-inch height advantage and a four-inch reach advantage.

This fight will come down to whether or not Burns can take Hooker down to the ground and finish him. I have a hard time seeing this happen due to Hooker’s impressive striking ability and overall toughness. I can easily see this fight going the distance or Hooker stopping Burns late with a TKO. Either way, I feel that Hooker comes out of this competitive fight with a solid win.

UFC Bet: Dan Hooker (-120)        

Women’s Strawweight Fight: Jamie Moyle (-190) vs Emily Whitmire (+165)

Both fighters come into this bout having lost their previous fight. I wouldn’t be surprised if the loser gets her walking papers. Emily Whitmire (2-2) is a sizeable underdog in this strawweight fight, but she is roughly 5 inches taller than Moyle. However, Emily gives up at least 2 inches in reach. Whitmire’s last fight was a loss as she was forced to submit in the first round. In fact, both of her career losses have come via submission.

Moyle (4-2) hasn’t fought in roughly 13 months due to an injury. But, she does have a “nasty” fighting style that should give Whitmire problems. Moyle has three decision victories in her 4 career wins. And I see this fight being another decision victory for her. I believe that Jamie will out-strike and out-grapple Whitmire in this preliminary fight all the way to the scorecards. Look for all 3 judges to give Moyle the unanimous decision.

UFC Bet: Jamie Moyle (-190)

UFC 226 FS1 Preliminary Card Betting Odds

The second portion of preliminary fights will begin at 8pm ET and air on Fox Sports 1:

Middleweight Fight: Uriah Hall (+328) vs Paulo Costa (-405)

Uriah Hall (13-8) is fighting for his UFC career when he steps into the octagon on Saturday to take on Paulo Costa (11-0). Hall’s claim to fame is his miraculous knockout victory over the revered Gegard Mousasi. It was an upset that should’ve catapulted Hall into another stratosphere. Instead, he followed that win up with three losses including a 1st round TKO against Mousasi in a rematch. Hall was able to keep his UFC fight career on life support with another surprising win over Jotko in his last fight. Unfortunately, I think this is where Hall’s luck runs out.

Costa is a much more efficient fighter than Hall, which is evident by his undefeated record. The Brazilian hasn’t even gone past the middle of the second around in his 11 career fights, and I don’t really see that happening in this one. In fact, I think it would be a moral victory if Hall makes it out of the 2nd round against Costa.

Paulo will put the pressure on Hall and go for the kill if he sees any openings. And, let’s face it, Hall’s mental lapses during fights will put him in danger against Costa and I believe the Brazilian will get a 2nd round TKO over Uriah in this one.

UFC Bet:  Paulo Costa (-405)       

Bantamweight Fight: Raphael Assunção (-178) vs Rob Font (+157)

Rob Font (15-3) is a powerful striker who has the potential to smother or overwhelm his opponents in just about every fight. It’s what has earned him to 7 KO’s/TKO’s out of his 15 career wins. But, in his one fight against an effective grappler (Munhoz), Font was forced to tap out in the first round. So, he’s definitely susceptible to Assuncao’s grappling skills.

Raphael Assuncao (26-5) is often called the most boring fighter in the UFC. However, he is highly successful in the octagon as he’s won 10 out of his last 11 fights. The 35 year old has been with the company since 2011, but doesn’t really draw enough excitement when he fights, which is why he’s lacked more title shots.

Assuncao is older, shorter, and gives up 5 inches in reach. However, he really is the more proficient fighter of the two. Font will try to knock his opponent’s head off in this bout, but I just don’t see him being able to crack the code of Assuncao. Raphael is one of the division’s top counterpunchers, is a better grappler, and he will slow down this fight to a pace that favors his strengths.

Font is going to fall prey to Assuncao’s smooth, yet boring fight skills. From 2013 to 2017, Raphael won 6 straight fights via Decision. He broke that streak in his last fight with a 3rd round KO. However, I think the safe bet in this one is for Assuncao to win via unanimous decision.

UFC Bet: Raphael Assunção (-178)

Lightweight Fight: Lando Vannata (-185) vs Drakkar Klose (+160)

Due to the last minute change to the UFC 226 fight card, this bout was moved from the Fight Pass portion of the event to the FS1 portion.

Drakkar Klose (8-1-1) hasn’t fought since last December. In that fight, he was the favorite, but lost due to a more tentative fight strategy that kept him at a distance for far too long. Klose could face a similar pitfall if he doesn’t attempt to get Vannata to the ground, or against the cage, where Klose is an excellent grinder.

Lando Vannata (9-2-1) is the more talented of the two fighters, but does have some troubles with pacing himself, which saw him get a Draw in his last fight and a Decision loss two fights ago. Although Vannata is the better striker of the two, he tends to rely too much on the home run shot and not on jabs or kicks. With that said, he still has enough fire power and a solid takedown defense to win this fight. The only question in my mind is whether or not Vannata finishes Klose before having to go to the scorecards.

With 8 wins coming via KO or submission, I think Lando can get a mid-to-late round TKO victory as Klose will end up eating too many big shots.

UFC Bet: Lando Vannata (-185)

Welterweight Fight: Curtis Millender (-185) vs Max Griffin (+160)

Millender (15-3) is one of the biggest welterweights in the UFC at 6’3” with a 78” reach. He put the entire division on notice in his UFC debut back in February. Stepping in on short notice, Millender knocked out former title contender Thiago Alves with a devastating knee. Having won 7 straight fights, Millender shook off inconsistencies in the earlier part of his career to develop a solid striking and clinch arsenal.

Speaking of striking arsenal, Max Griffin (14-4) also has a reputable one, which is evident by half of his wins coming via KO or TKO. Griffin shocked pundits and fans by taking a decision victory over Mike Perry in his last fight. Max has the potential to pull off another upset in this fight as well. But, I just see him falling a little short against the bigger Millender.

Griffin will try to pressure Millender and land some big shots. Unfortunately, he’s also going to open himself up to massive kicks from Millender. Griffin won’t be a threat to takedown Millender and doesn’t have all of the tools to get inside on Curtis. I expect Griffin to eat a massive shot in the second round and take the loss. Millender will extend his UFC win streak to 2 and keep trending upward.

UFC Bet: Curtis Millender (-185)

UFC 226 Main Card Betting Odds

The main card will feature 5 fights and air on PPV starting at 10 PM ET.

Light Heavyweight Fight: Gökhan Saki (-130) vs Khalil Rountree (+110)

Saki (1-1) might not have an impressive MMA career, but he’s a world renowned kickboxer with 59 of his wins coming by way of knockout. 10 months ago, Saki made his UFC debut and won via KO in the first round. That’s exactly what he’ll be looking to do in this bout.

Rountree (6-2) had his last fight overturned to a No Contest. Prior to that bout, he had won two fights to improve his UFC record to 2-2. He will also be looking for a knockout on Saki, which will definitely make this light heavyweight contest a must see affair.

In fact, I can easily see this being a contender for “knockout of the night.”

This will be Rountree’s toughest opponent to date. He has enough MMA experience to figure out how to survive against a kickboxer and possibly get the win. But, I feel that Khalil will go back to what is natural for him and that’s brawling. I see him trying to brawl it out with Saki, which will play into the hands and feet of this legendary kickboxer.

Look for Saki to keep Rountree at a distance and catch him with a vicious shot that leads to a knockout.

UFC Bet: Gökhan Saki (-130)

Lightweight Fight: Michael Chiesa (-160) vs Anthony Pettis (+140)

This exciting lightweight fight was supposed to take place at UFC 223, but we all know how Connor McGregor went crazy, attacked a bus that had UFC 223 fighters on it, and injured Chiesa just ahead of the UFC 223 event. It forced the company to reschedule the matchup to UFC 226.

The winner of this fight will stay relevant in the division as a title contender, but the loser will fall dramatically. In the case of Pettis, a loss could signal an end to his career as anything more than a “named fighter.”

Michael Chiesa (14-3) comes into this fight having won 3 of his last 4 fights. Unfortunately, it was his last fight where he lost via submission in the first round. Every time you want to declare Chiesa as a possible title contender, he ends up losing a fight. But, what makes Chiesa dangerous is that he will snatch you from the front or back, and take you down to the mat where he overpowers his opponents with a nasty combination of strength and submission skills. 10 of his 14 career wins have come via submissions.

Anthony Pettis (20-7) used to be one of the sport’s pound for pound best fighters. Unfortunately, those days are long behind him. Since March of 2015, Pettis has a 2-5 record inside the octagon. He lost in his last fight via submission and is barely holding on to any relevancy inside the cage. A loss would signal his days in the spotlight are over. However, a win could put him back in the conversation of a potential title eliminator fight.

For Pettis to win, he’s going to need to catch Chiesa with a fight changing punch or a kick. Pettis still has the striking skills to hang with anyone in the division. Unfortunately, he lacks the grappling skills to defend against the takedown, to prevent from getting smothered, and to prevent from being tapped out.

For Chiesa to win, he will need to get Pettis off his feet or pinned against the cage. From there, Chiesa can grind Pettis into hamburger meat. I believe Chiesa will be able to get inside the striking range of Pettis and eventually get him into a favorable position. Chiesa will grind, grab, and strike his way to victory.

UFC Bet: Michael Chiesa (-160)  

Welterweight Fight: Paul Felder (-145) vs Mike Perry (+125)

Let’s start this analysis off by stating that this is going to be an exciting fight. It’s also a tough one to predict as both fighters are capable of winning this welterweight bout. Initially, this fight was supposed to be on the preliminary undercard, but the UFC moved it up to the main card after Holloway withdrew from the PPV.

Mike Perry (11-3) comes into this contest having lost his last two fights via decision. He’s dropped to 4-3 inside the octagon and definitely needs to turn things around. Despite being one of the divisions most exciting fighters, Perry is trending in the wrong direction. With that said, Felder can’t sleep on Perry’s striking skills or Felder will go to sleep in this fight. All 11 of Perry’s wins have come via KO or TKO and 7 of them have come in the 1st round.

Paul Felder (15-3) has one of my favorite nicknames in the UFC – “the Irish Dragon.” Felder has won 5 out of his last 6 fights including three straight victories via KO or TKO. Felder loves throwing them elbows as that’s what earned him his last three wins. The Irish Dragon has an excellent kicking arsenal for which he’s worked hard to balance that out with boxing skills. Perry will need to be very sharp to win this bout.

In his last two fights, Perry’s fight plan wasn’t hard to figure out, which is why he lost both of them. If he doesn’t change things up for this fight, Felder will pick him apart. The good thing for Perry is he’s now under the guidance of Greg Jackson who should keep his fighter on track and well-prepared. As much as I want to pick Felder to win, I think Perry can score a nasty early round KO on Felder. So, I’m taking the small upset here with Perry scoring an early 2nd round TKO.

UFC Bet: Mike Perry (+125)

Heavyweight Fight: Francis Ngannou (-380) vs Derrick Lewis (+315)

In the semi-main event of the night, Francis “The Predator” Ngannou looks to get back on track with a win over the huge underdog Derrick Lewis. Ngannou (11-2) had won 10 straight fights before losing his last contest to UFC heavyweight champ Miocic via unanimous decision. Ngannou has some impressive wins inside the octagon over Overeem, Arlovski and Blaydes.

For “The Predator,” he has little to gain, but a lot to lose if he doesn’t walk out of the cage with a victory. A loss would drop him down the heavyweight food chain, but a win would keep him right near the top of the division and probably one fight away from another title shot.

Lewis (19-5) loves to brawl and is not afraid to mix it up with his opponents. 17 of his 19 career wins have come via KO or TKO. Lewis has won 7 of his last 8 fights with only one of them going the distance. He’ll look to try and take out Ngannou and catapult himself into title contention.

Lewis has fared well against other big strikers in Roy Nelson, but did lose to Mark Hunt via TKO. Ngannou is better than both of those guys. However, Francis does have some questionable conditioning and ground skills, which we saw in his ugly loss to Miocic. Lewis could take advantage of this and score some points with the judges via strikes or takedowns. This is also the only way he could possibly win the fight. With that said, I don’t see it happening.

Ngannou will keep some distance from Lewis and pick him apart with impressive striking skills. I see Lewis eventually trying to close the distance, with the hopes of taking out Francis with a massive punch. This will play into Ngannou’s strengths as he’s an excellent counter puncher. I believe “The Predator” will drop Lewis in the middle rounds.

UFC Bet: Francis Ngannou (-380)

Heavyweight Fight: Daniel Cormier (+190) vs (c) Stipe Miocic (-230)

For the first time in a few years, the UFC has an exciting heavyweight super fight that will surely deliver as advertised. The challenger, Daniel Cormier (20-1), has won 5 straight fights not including the No Contest bout against Jon Jones a year ago due to Jones failing a test. Other than Cormier’s lone loss to Jones in their first fight, back in 2015, Cormier has been a dominating fighter going 13-0 in the heavyweight division before dropping down to the light heavyweight division. However, his last heavyweight fight came against Roy Nelson roughly 5 years ago.

Cormier is going to need to rely on his elite wrestling and ground skills to grind down Miocic who is a superior striker. Daniel will need to get inside Stipe’s long reach to get a takedown. Most heavyweights aren’t able to accomplish this, but Cormier isn’t like most and I expect him to find some success.

Stipe Miocic (18-2) has won 6 straight fights and has successfully defended his title in three straight fights. Prior to his decision victory over Ngannou in January, Miocic had 4 straight victories via stoppage in the first round. Stipe is also a proficient wrestler with a D1 background. So, he won’t be dominated on the mat like other fighters that have faced Cormier.

This fight will come down to Cormier avoiding Stipe’s massive strikes and Miocic avoiding being outwrestled on the mat.

One more thing before I make my prediction, these odds are way too high. I think this fight is a lot closer than what oddsmakers have set it at.

With that in mind, I’m going with the upset. Miocic is the best heavyweight fighter on the roster, but I think Cormier is arguably the best fighter, not named Jon Jones, on the roster. I believe it’s time for Cormier to reign in the UFC’s top division. He’s become more than just an elite wrestler and I believe that will help him win this fight. The only question now is when the fight will end. I’m going with Cormier to win via decision.

UFC Bet: Daniel Cormier (+190)

UFC 226: Miocic vs Cormier Final Thoughts

Even with some potentially explosive fights on the undercard and the preliminary cards, this UFC Event is all about Miocic vs Cormier. It’s one of the most exciting heavyweight fights we’ve had in a long time and it’s a super fight that most fans are going to salivate over. In fact, both heavyweight fights are going to give fans their money’s worth as Ngannou and Lewis will have some post-4th of July fireworks.

In the end, I don’t see this PPV offering many upsets other than the two I picked: Cormier over Miocic and Perry over Felder. However, that’s not to say that other underdogs can’t win. But, on paper, this seems like a pretty straight forward card.

Fight fans, enjoy this super fight because who knowns when we will get another one.

UFC 226 Betting Recap

  • Dan Hooker (-120) over Burns
  • Jamie Moyle (-190) over Whitmire
  • Lando Vannata (-185) over Klose
  • Paulo Costa (-405) over Hall
  • Raphael Assunção (-178) over Font
  • Curtis Millender (-185) over Griffin
  • Gökhan Saki (-130) over Rountree
  • Michael Chiesa (-160) over Pettis
  • Mike Perry (+125) over Felder
  • Francis Ngannou (-380) over Lewis
  • Daniel Cormier (+190) over Miocic
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