The Walking Dead Betting Odds: Who Did Negan Kill?

by Kevin Roberts
on August 31, 2016

The season six finale of The Walking Dead drew a litany of complaints. The show’s creators had no idea what they were doing putting TWD fans through the treacherous hell that accompanies a cliffhanger.

Then again, maybe they knew exactly what they were doing. The Walking Dead story had come full circle and we needed a truly gut-wrenching ending to season six to let us know that with the arrival of Jeffrey Dean Morgan’s Negan really means:

Change is coming.

The foreshadowing and completion of character arcs in the season – and more specifically that tragic season six finale – was both beautiful and ominous. The fact that so many characters finally started to find peace – or even their place – should have let us in on a little secret – no one is ever at peace in this world. And the second you think you find your place, you’re susceptible to be moved – or even removed from the show.

But you don’t need a breakdown of the poetic intricacies of The Walking Dead. You watch the dang show, so you know how well blended and diverse it is.

What you really want to know, along with the rest of us, is who Negan beat to living hell with his beloved bat, Lucille.

The Walking Dead – Who Negan Killed Odds

The Walking Dead odds were thrown around over the past few months, but the most recent ones gave us a pretty decent idea as to who could be in the most trouble:

  • Glenn 2/1
  • Rosita 3/1
  • Aaron 3/1
  • Abraham 3/1
  • Eugene 4/1
  • Daryl 10/1
  • Michonne 10/1
  • Maggie 14/1
  • Sasha 16/1
  • Carl 25/1
  • Rick 33/1

These are your potential victims when we kick things back up in episode one of season seven of The Walking Dead. The odds could change drastically before then, but right now we’re less concerned about the odds or even any The Walking Dead betting. As fans we just want to figure out what we need to brace for.

One great way to do that is to run through all of the insane fan and expert theory videos on YouTube. We won’t post them all here, both because there are way too many to post, and also because a lot of them either contradict each other or eventually even contradict themselves.

They’re fun to watch, however, and depending on what you believe and how you think The Walking Dead show-runners plan things out, you might get closer to your answer. We’re not using camera angles or even much from the season six finale to figure this out, though.

One big reason why is the show creators may have thrown us for a loop with the way they shot things in that season finale, or the camera angles and character perspective is completely re-shot when we basically see the end of season six again in seven seven’s first episode.

Even if camera angles and character perspective aren’t being taken into account here, we think dialogue probably should be. Two quotes from Negan really resonate when trying to figure out who he killed:

Quote 1

“Anybody moves, anybody says anything, cut the boy’s other eye out and feed it to his father and then we’ll start”.

Quote 2

“Oh, look at that, taking it like a champ”

We’re using straight up logic to figure this one out, so let’s run through all of the characters who are on their knees and at Negan’s mercy when we last saw them.

Before we do, keep in mind the main criteria here:

  • This death needs to be big for the show
  • The death needs to make some sense

The Walking Dead isn’t very random and the show is well planned out. They’re not going to kill someone we don’t know or even a lesser character. They saved this death because it deserved an entire season premier to mourn it.

Who Did Negan Kill?

Rick 33/1

Let’s start this thing off with knocking out the obvious. Rick is the face of this franchise and he’s the leader of this now disastrously unlucky group. He’s also completely broken in these horrifying moments and Negan knows it.

Negan doesn’t like that Rick had his people slaughter a bunch of his crew, but in an odd way you can tell he respects it. He also is probably a little leery of killing Rick, because if he does that the rest of the group isn’t very likely to bend to his every call with their leader murdered. They’d be even more likely to revolt or simply flee. But if Negan can keep Rick of all people in check, then he knows he’s got this group under control.

Control is clearly what Negan is all about, and aside from some good, old classic revenge here, he also wants to make sure everyone sees and hears him.

Killing Rick would be massive, but it doesn’t fit Negan’s MO here, nor does it make much sense for the show.

Verdict: Negan also quips a line about cutting Carl’s other eye out and feeding it to Rick, suggesting that he isn’t about to bash Rick’s skull in. He may want to, but he isn’t killing Rick just yet.

Carl 25/1

Carl just lost his eye and is warped as he sometimes seems, he still has a long ways to go in terms of character development and story goes. He also has now somehow survived two gruesome gunshot injuries, so it’d be pretty weak for him to me mashed to bits out of nowhere.

You can use the “cut out the kid’s other eye” line to come to Carl’s aid, as well.

Oh, and Negan, as cruel as he seems to be, doesn’t strike me as a guy who is going to send a message by murdering a kid.

Verdict: Carl has one eye, he’s the son of Rick, the leader and he’s still a kid. He’ll live to see the world with one eye for at least one more day.

Sasha 16/1

This is where The Walking Dead death odds start getting weird. Sasha is one of those characters that have come full circle. She found happiness, lost it and wanted to die and then rediscovered her will to live when she and Abraham hooked up.

Now things are going to hell and it’d make perfect sense for Sasha’s world to fully collapse. She’s also a pretty tough lady, so it’s worth wondering if Negan sees her as a problem and decides to take her out, while also showing everyone he means business by killing a female.

Of course, if we look to the comics here, Negan doesn’t kill women. And it’s also very possible that Sasha doesn’t have to personally die to experience her world collapsing. Instead, it could just be the head of her lover (Abraham) that caves in.

Verdict: We do stop to pause when we hear Sasha’s name, but we think she feels her pain via someone else getting their head bashed in. Wait for it…

Maggie 14/1

Maggie has something seriously wrong with here and seems to be inches from death. It also stands to reason that, considering our favorite TWD characters are in this particular jam because they were trying to get her up the hill to see a doctor, that she still has some story to tell.

She’s a sick, pregnant woman and none of that screams, “Yeah, Negan’s gonna kill her”.

There is also the case of Maggie turning against Rick once/if Negan batters the brains of her husband, Glenn.

Verdict: Maggie is a huge character that would certainly provide a traumatic and layered death, but there’s too much working against a bloody exit for her right now.

Michonne 10/1

Another character where we stop and think, “Sure, yeah, maybe”.

Michonne is as tough or even tougher than Sasha, she’s dangerous with her sword wielding and she’s seemingly just fallen in love with Rick, the crew’s leader. Negan isn’t one to bash in the heads of women, but would he give himself a pass just this once to eliminate the woman who Rick loves, who can also cut him up to pieces with a sword? Maybe, just maybe.

Verdict: Seriously, we don’t know. Michonne is a woman and we think Negan will steer clear from killing females, but she’s a threat and her death would get to Rick and also be massive for the show. She can’t be ruled out, but we don’t think it’s going to be her.

Daryl 10/1

Daryl has already been shot and looks pretty rough when he gets shoved into the line of TWD characters, so beating the crap out of him doesn’t seem to make much sense. Negan picking on someone in a weakened state doesn’t really make sense, but you should also note it from the other side: an injured Daryl possibly already near death doesn’t do Negan a whole lot of good.

Verdict: Daryl would be a massive show death and is in play, but we don’t really buy the logic.

Eugene 4/1

Eugene is another character that has come full circle. A perennial loser and wimp, Eugene has evolved into a true apocalypse survivor that can not only now fend for himself, but protect others.

We’re not about to confuse Eugene with Rick or Daryl, but he’s no longer the weak link he once was. He even found a recipe for making gun ammunition, which is invaluable.

This argument can go two ways. On one hand, Negan could see the upside (should he learn of this in time) of Eugene’s ability to create ammo, as well as his general high IQ. In that same breath, Eugene already gave the gun ammo recipe to Rick and also took on the role of decoy to help the group out. That backfired, but with his character evolution now seemingly complete, he’s a fine contender to be taken out to the pasture.

Verdict: Eugene feels like a cop out and wouldn’t shake the foundation like some other deaths, but he surely has come full circle. We don’t think it’s him, but his death would make perfect sense.

Abraham 3/1

There has been a lot of back and forth with Abraham this summer, as there is a lot of evidence supporting his death, but he’s become such a strong character that it’s tough to see him go. That being said, it’s also worth wondering if killing off ol’ Abe is more of a cop out and an excuse to not kill someone bigger like Daryl or Glenn.

Still, the logic is there for an Abraham death. He’s another person who has come full circle and seems to be think there is hope with the future. He’s also one of the more physically strong characters on the show, and would naturally be seen as a threat by Negan.

If we are to take the season six finale into play, too, consider how he’s the only person kneeling down that never breaks eye contact with Negan. A man without fear is forever dangerous, after all.

Of course, there’s also this:

Verdict: Abraham is majorly at risk going into season seven.

Aaron 3/1

Aaron seems like he still has some story to tell, but he’s always been fairly brave and resourceful. TWD community has also warmed up to him over time, even though he’s originally from Alexandria and still relatively new. However, he’s formed bonds with Maggie and others, which can have us go either way.

Either he is now a key part of their intertwined community and he’ll be a huge loss, or he’s going to be crucial to the group chemistry after we find out who Negan killed. There isn’t a ton of logic to support his death here, nor is there much incentive. He’s not a huge character and his death wouldn’t be nearly as compelling as many other candidates.

Verdict: His odds are good and he’s in the running, but we’re not seeing the impact of him being the victim of Negan’s bat.

Rosita 3/1

Rosita is a total wild card, even more so than Aaron, as she’s a candidate to lose her will to carry on with Abraham now with Sasha. She’s a woman and not a huge character, though, so her death doesn’t make a whole lot of sense here.

Verdict: Rosita would be an easy kill. Too easy. She’s not a huge character, and that plays against TWD producers waiting so long to reveal her gruesome death. It’s not going to be her.

Glenn 2/1

Glenn is the leader in odds for several key reasons. For one, in the comics, he in fact gets beat to death by Negan with his baseball bat. That happened and we all know this.

In addition, the creators of the shows have been flat out messing with us when it comes to Glenn for pretty much the entire series. He’s almost died, by our calculation, one thousand times. His most recent dance with death came when he fell off a dumpster and looked like he was getting eaten alive by a crap ton of zombies.

Luckily that wasn’t the case, but that fake-out now precedes what is likely his final appearance only by a couple of episodes. That’s harsh, TWD creators. Too harsh.

So, if Glenn is to die, he’ll not only die just like he did in the comics, but his death will come not too long after his most recent near-death experience. Oh, and then even after that when he made it back to Alexandria, he almost died again when surrounded by a bunch of zombies, whilst screaming to Maggie.

One other little tidbit is some serious foreshadowing in an earlier episode, when Glenn, Rick and the band go and straight up murder some of The Saviors in order to gain the upper hand, when they don’t see it coming. This did two things for us:

  • It destroyed Glenn’s still existing innocence
  • During the murder spree Glenn happens upon something horrifying

To this point, Glenn had never killed a real, live human being yet. He was still fairly innocent and by killing before he could be killed, he came full circle as an innocent character. No longer innocent, Glenn’s character could now either unravel or, ya know, cease to exist.

During the death of his innocence, Glenn also saw some gory photos in The Saviors camp that looked like dead bodies with their heads bashed in. The amount of foreshadowing is just ridiculous.

Verdict: Glenn has the top odds for a reason. His innocence has gone, he’s almost been killed way too many times and he was the first to understand the brutality of Negan and Lucille before the current situation unfolded. He’s a goner.

The Walking Dead – Predicting Who Negan Killed

Before we officially predict who Negan killed on The Walking Dead, we’re going to display some of our biggest pieces of logic we’re using:

  • We don’t think Negan is keen on killing women or kids
  • Negan respects leadership
  • He also appreciates a good mental thrashing
  • He probably killed someone who is pretty tough
  • Negan wants to send a message
  • The show needs to deliver a big death

Because of all of this, we can safely rule out all of the women. Rosita, Sasha, Michonne and Maggie are all safe. Negan won’t kill women or kids – at least not yet – plus he referenced Carl as if he wasn’t about to beat his head in, so Carl is also among the living (aka safe).

Negan had a very odd chemistry and message when speaking to Rick, so I think there is a warped respect there. Even if that’s not the case, I do think Negan loves some sweet revenge and he likes to carry things out in a specific way. The way The Saviors pretty much bated our favorite zombie apocalypse survivors into a trap tells us he at least somewhat likes messing with people mentally and emotionally.

That’s a long-winded way of saying he’s not killing Rick and he probably has plans to make Rick’s life a living hell going forward.

The other obvious aspects to consider are that Negan wants to send a message with this beating, and so does the show. It could be the fact that no one is safe or whatever you want it to be. The point is someone big has to die.

That certain someone also needs to be tough – or at least surprisingly tough. Negan was almost shocked when he delivered the first whack and the person he bashed in the head seemed to look back at him with some resilience.

With the other candidates out, that probably brings us to the following options: Glenn, Daryl, Abraham, Aaron and Eugene.

Aaron isn’t a big enough character, Daryl is too weak from being shot and Eugene (although the “taking it like a champ” line oddly would ironically apply) would feel like a cop out.

This leaves us with Glenn or Abraham being killed by Negan.

The problem is, we think Glenn being killed after already seeing him killed in the comics feels too obvious. It’s almost too easy. And everyone has had all summer to digest that possibility and we’ve braced for it.

Abraham, however, has the toughness and demeanor to take that first wallop, sit back up and stare Negan in the face. We also don’t see how Negan can feel good about Abraham never buying into being a follower, so he knows he needs to take him out.

So, yeah, Abraham gets killed by Negan.

We settled on that pretty much immediately, too. Abraham’s character actually died long ago in the comics, but the show-runners substituted his arrow-through-the-eye death with Denise. That was a fun little trick, but his death is inevitable, so it make sense for it to come now in order to save the beloved Glenn.

Oh, except it’s not going to work.

Yeah, Negan isn’t done after bashing in Abraham and he’s going to kill Glenn, too. The double-death sequence is going to be worth all of that build-up, albeit The Walking Dead will move forward without two awesome characters.

It needs to happen, though. We’re entering an entirely new era in this show, where Negan is the successful aggressor and Rick at least temporarily doesn’t get his way. We’re also being introduced to other huge characters – specifically King Ezekiel and The Kingdom.

There isn’t room for all of these strong characters. Two need to go, and Glenn and Abraham are our The Walking Dead casualties, courtesy of Negan.

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