Week 5 NFL Picks: Analysis and Predictions For Every Game

by Kevin Roberts
on October 6, 2016

A new week of NFL action is upon us, starting with a divisional battle on Thursday Night Football between the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers.

What would normally be an easy win for the Cardinals gets complicated this week, as they’ve lost three of their first four games to start the season and will need to try to get to 2-3 without quarterback Carson Palmer (concussion).

That’s one interesting storyline for a loaded week that boasts 14 NFL contests. Let’s run through each one and see which way we might want to lean when it comes to week five NFL betting:

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) Total: 43

No Carson Palmer is obviously huge, especially on the road, but this is a must-win game for Arizona and they still have David Johnson and a talented defense.

The Cards also have this guy (Drew Stanton) leading the charge:

Against a Blaine Gabbert-led Niners team that has dropped three in a row, that should be more than enough.

Pick: Cardinals 20, 49ers 13

New England Patriots (-11.5) @ Cleveland Browns (+11.5) Total: 47

Tom Brady returns in week from to unleash his fury after a four-game ban that probably should have never happened.

Cleveland has been pretty competitive the past three weeks, but they’re about to feel serious pain in this one.

Pick: Patriots 37, Browns 17

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Detroit Lions (+3) Total: 46

Carson Wentz and the Eagles are still undefeated as they emerge from their bye week to take on the Lions in Detroit. This is a matchup that favors Philly on paper, as the Lions can’t run the ball and have seen their defense fall apart. Wentz just needs to avoid mistakes and let his defense crush skulls, just like he’s done all year.

Pick: Eagles 24, Lions 10

Chicago Bears (n/a) @ Indianapolis Colts (n/a) Total: n/a

The NFL betting data isn’t available yet for this game, likely because Vegas is still waiting to see if Jay Cutler will suit up. This will be a tough game to gauge either way, as Indy has their backs up against the wall at home and the Bears come in with confidence after a win.

Chicago should keep this one close behind surprisingly solid play out of Brian Hoyer, but the Colts can’t drop to 1-4 at home. Right?

Pick: Colts 27, Bears 23

Washington Redskins (+4) @ Baltimore Ravens (-4) Total: 45

The Redskins turned their season around with two big wins in a row, but getting a third on the road in Baltimore won’t be easy. The Ravens have gotten into a nasty habit of playing tight games, but something tells me they’ll spread their wings a bit more offensively in this one.

Pick: Ravens 30, Redskins 21

New York Jets (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) Total: 48

Ryan Fitzpatrick can’t stop throwing picks and this Jets teams is suddenly severely banged up. Their defense isn’t even doing it’s job, as everything is coming together to make this one forgettable season in a hurry. The Steelers, meanwhile, are at home and seem unstoppable with Le’Veon Bell back in the saddle.

Pick: Steelers 33, Jets 23

Houston Texans (+6.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) Total: 40.5

Houston not having J.J. Watt anymore clearly hurts a once elite defense, while Brock Osweiler still is tough to trust. Considering this top shelf Minnesota defense has made the likes of Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning look like boy scouts, why should we expect things to be any different for Osweiler and the Texans?

Pick: Vikings 20, Texans 10

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5) Total: 43

This is probably the biggest toss up when it comes to week five NFL picks, as both of these teams are really bad. Tennessee sports the better defense and rushing game, though, which could be enough to spark the mild upset. Miami being at home gives them hope, but they have no running game and Ryan Tannehill looks lost too often.

Pick: Titans 23, Dolphins 20

Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ Denver Broncos (-6) Total: 47

This is a massive game for the Falcons, as a big road win over the defending champions would make them more legit than any other win possibly could. While that’s not crazy to imagine, it’s still unlikely. The Broncos can move the ball on offense and that defense is still as nasty as ever. Oh, and this just isn’t a team that loses at home.

Pick: Broncos 24, Falcons 17

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) Total: 45

The Bengals looked more like themselves last week, as Vontaze Burfict returned to spark the defense and Andy Dalton and co. moved the ball with ease. That should help them get a nice road win here against an arguably over-achieving Dallas club, but the lack of success in the red-zone is still troubling.

Pick: Bengals 27, Cowboys 20

San Diego Chargers (+4) @ Oakland Raiders (-4) Total: 50

You can’t write anyone off completely in a divisional contest, but the Chargers have been beaten down by injuries and are not running the ball effectively. Philip Rivers will continue to give them a chance, but the Raiders are for real at 3-1 and should take care of business at home.

Pick: Raiders 30, Chargers 23

Buffalo Bills (+3) @ Los Angeles Rams (-3) Total: 40

The Bills have won two straight behind a resurgent defense and get Marcell Dareus back and they’re still underdogs against the Rams? How disrespectful. L.A. will keep it close thanks to an elite defense, but their three-game run has to come to an end.

Pick: Bills 16, Rams 13

New York Giants (+7.5) @ Green Bay Packers (-7.5) Total: 48

Eli Manning and the Giants are at a crossroads. After two ho-hum wins over the Cowboys and Saints, they suddenly don’t look like a changed team. If they can’t light up a shaky Packers secondary, they’re probably goners. Heck, even if they do, it’s tough to see Aaron Rodgers and co. coming up lame at home on Sunday Night Football.

Pick: Packers 34, Giants 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (n/a) @ Carolina Panthers (n/a) Total: n/a

This is another week five NFL game that doesn’t have all the betting data yet, largely due to the status of Panthers quarterback, Cam Newton. Newton is still not a safe bet to play due to concussion symptoms, so that makes this a dicey game.

This game might be dicey regardless, as the Panthers have looked awful en route to a 1-3 start. Still, Newton or no Newton, it’s tough to see them dropping to the bottom of the NFC South at home.

Pick: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 20

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