MWC Championship Fresno State vs Boise State Odds and Prediction

by Rick Rockwell
on November 28, 2018
4

Minute Read

Saturday’s Mountain West Championship game will be a rematch between last year’s participants, which makes for compelling television and hard hitting action. This is the 4th time that the #25 ranked Fresno State Bulldogs have made the title game and the 3rd time that #22 ranked Boise State has made the title game since the conference went to two divisions in 2013. Will BSU win a second straight MWC title or will the Bulldogs get revenge? Kickoff inside Albertsons Stadium is at 7:45 PM ET.

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Fresno State vs Boise State Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of live odds feed:

Betting Data Fresno State Bulldogs Boise State Broncos
Current S/U record 10-2 10-2
2018 Home 6-0 5-1
2018 Away 4-2 5-1
2018 ATS 8-4 7-4-1
2018 ATS Home 4-2 4-2
2018 ATS Away 4-2 3-2-1
2018 O/U 2-8-1 5-7
2018 O/U Home 2-3 2-4
2018 O/U Away 0-5-1 3-3

MWC Title Game Preview: Bulldogs vs Broncos

Saturday’s MWC Championship game will mark the 22nd time these two teams have played against each other. Currently, the Broncos are 15-6 against the Bulldogs. Boise State is 11-2 in the last 13 games including winning two in a row. Furthermore, Boise State has gone 2-0 against Fresno State in MWC Championship games (2017 and 2014).

Fresno State (10-2, 7-1 MWC) is coming off an easy win over San Jose State last weekend, which was their second win in a row. The Bulldogs lost three weeks ago to Boise State at Albertson’s Stadium, where they are playing this weekend. Can the Bulldogs end the Broncos reign over the MWC?

Boise State (10-2, 7-1 MWC) is coming off a hard fought victory over then #21 ranked Utah State. The Broncos led for most of the game, but it was a battle until the final whistle. BSU comes into this matchup having won 7 straight games since their loss to San Diego State on October 6th. The Broncos appear to have corrected their mistakes and look like the BSU we’ve become accustomed to over the last decade.

The spread for this MWC title game saw an opening of 1.5 to 3 points for Fresno State depending on which football betting site you shop for lines at. Since then, the majority of online betting sites have Boise State favored by 2.5 points. The Over/Under opened at 50 to 51 points with most sportsbooks. Currently, the O/U is at 50.5 total points with most online oddsmakers.

Free MWC Title Game Bet and Predictions: Boise State -148

This rivalry might not be as popular as others across the nation, but it has become the Mountain West Conference’s top rivalry and the one that seems to decide the conference champion on an annual basis.

The Broncos are led by the stud duo of QB Brett Rypien and RB Alexander Mattison. Rypien has thrown for over 3,500 yards and 29 TDs this season. Mattison has rushed for 1,215 yards and 16 TDs on the season. The duo have helped the BSU offense tally 468.7 total ypg, 37 ppg, and a 10-2 record on the year.

In their first encounter with Fresno State this season, Mattison rushed for 144 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries. Rypien went 24 of 29 for 269 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.  BSU scored 14 points in the 4th quarter, via TD pass from Rypien and a Mattison run, to defeat Fresno State 24 to 17. When it was time to step up, this duo did. And, I expect them to do it again this weekend.

Fresno State has a great defense that holds opponents to under 200 passing ypg, 121.8 rushing ypg, and just 13.5 ppg. Other than BSU’s 24 points, Fresno State only gave up 27 to Toledo in a 49-27 victory. The Bulldogs are heavy on the pass as they average 282.8 ypg and QB Marcus McMaryion has surpassed the 3,200 yard mark with an excellent 8-to-1 TD to INT ratio (24 TDs to 3 INTs). He’s proven to be more than capable of leading this offense to victory and is looking for redemption from last year’s MWC title game.

For this game, I’m jumping on the Boise State moneyline of -148. As much as I would like to take BSU covering the 2.5 spread, Fresno State has been killer against the spread over the last few seasons. Fresno State is 6-2 ATS as when the line is +3 to -3, they’re 8-4 ATS this year, 14-4 ATS as an underdog, 18-6 ATS versus conference foes, 9-4 ATS when trying to avenge a loss, 12-2 ATS when playing teams with winning records, and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 overall games.

BSU is 6-12 ATS when playing at home, 1-5 ATS when the home total is between 49.5 and 52 total points, 8-11 ATS after winning 2 or more games in a row, 5-8 ATS when playing against teams with winning records, and 10-13 ATS versus MWC foes. As you can see, Boise State doesn’t inspire confidence in covering even 2.5 points.

The Total is also a bit scary. These two teams combined to score 73.3 ppg, but they also combined to allow 37.8 ppg on the season. Furthermore, their last two games played against each other ended in scores of 24-17 and 17-14. A bet on the Under 50.5 total points is a decent college football wager, but the safe play is the BSU moneyline.

Boise State hasn’t lost at home to Fresno State since 1984. They have a more experienced QB, a better running game, and the magic of the Blue Turf. Look for BSU to win in an excellent defensive battle.

Fresno State vs Boise State Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Fresno State (+128) and Boise State (-148)
  • Spread: Boise State -2.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 50.5 total points (-110)
  • Prediction: Boise State 20 – Fresno State 19
Pick: Boise State
-148

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