Orioles vs Yankees Pick for June 9th

by Taylor Smith
on June 9, 2017
Baltimore Orioles (+120)
New York Yankees(-140)
Total: 9

After the O’s dropped a make-up game with the Nationals Thursday night, they’ll head north to the Bronx to take on the upstart Yankees for a three-game set starting tonight. Mercurial right-hander Dylan Bundy will take the mound for Baltimore opposite rookie left-hander Jordan Montgomery for the Yankees.

Bundy’s 2.93 ERA looks shiny, and his ability to limit big innings has been a major key in terms of his run prevention. He’s allowed more than two earned runs in only two of his 12 starts so far, and one of his better outings came two starts ago against these Yankees.

One weird aspect of Bundy’s success this season is that his velocity has been down. He may just be waiting to ramp it up until later in the season, but his strikeout rate is also down more than 4%. He went from being a slightly above-average strikeout pitcher to a slightly below-average one. Will he be able to keep up this kind of success all season long without missing many bats?

We have Montgomery on the other side, and he’s also been enjoying a fine season. He’s been in particularly good form of late, as the southpaw hasn’t allowed more than a single earned run in any of his last three starts. However, he did struggle against the Orioles two starts ago. He was chased after just 4.1 innings and allowing eight hits with a walk. He limited damage, but the O’s got to him a bit. Baltimore has given Montgomery problems twice already this season.

We think bats on both sides of this game are in good spots tonight inside the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. The Yankees rank second-best in the majors in wOBA, wRC+ and average against right-handed pitching so far this season. The Orioles have several batters in the lineup that absolutely mash lefties, as well.

We think the total of nine runs for this game is too low. Vegas’ implied total of 4.81 runs for New York is a bit on the low side, too. We like the Yankees to win this game, but we think they score more than five runs along the way. The Orioles should plate a few against Montgomery, as well.

Give us the Over on this one. There could be some fireworks in the Big Apple this evening.
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