Raiders vs Chargers – NFL Pick for Sunday, October 7th

by Rick Rockwell
on October 5, 2018
6

Minute Read

On Sunday, the Oakland Raiders travel down the highway to take on divisional foe the Los Angeles Chargers. The Raiders got their first win of the season and look to get their first win inside the AFC West division. The Chargers are looking to get over .500 and keep pace with the Chiefs at the top of the division. Kickoff inside StubHub Center is at 4:05 PM ET.

Betting Data Oakland Raiders Los Angeles Chargers
Current S/U record 1-3 2-2
2018 Home 1-1 1-1
2018 Away 0-2 1-1
2018 ATS 2-2 1-3
2018 ATS Home 1-1 0-2
2018 ATS Away 1-1 1-1
2018 O/U 2-2 4-0
2018 O/U Home 1-1 2-0
2018 O/U Away 1-1 2-0

Oakland Raiders vs LA Chargers AFC West Game Preview

The Raiders and the Chargers have a long rivalry that dates back to the AFL days. Their first encounter was in 1960, and since then, these two teams have played a total of 117 times. Sunday’s game will be the 118th meeting. The Raiders lead the series with a record of 63-52-2. The Raiders have won 4 of the last 6 games between these two teams, but did get swept by the Chargers last year.

Oakland (1-3) won a hard fought battle against the Browns last weekend, which resulted in their first victory of 2018 and the first win for coach Gruden in his second stint as the Raiders coach. Oakland clawed their way back, scored with 30 seconds left to send it into OT, and then won the game via a FG in overtime. Now, the Raiders hope to build off that momentum and get their first division win of the year against the Chargers.

Los Angeles (2-2) held on to defeat the 49ers last weekend, but really outplayed them for most of the game before putting it into cruise control in the second half. The Chargers defense is playing very poorly this season and a lot of people blame it on the absence of Bosa. However, there are more issues than just Bosa missing. Can the Chargers play better defense this weekend against the Raiders?

At many online sports betting sites, the spread opened at -7 in favor of the Chargers. However, the line has dropped since then and now the Chargers are only favored by 4.5 points. The Over/Under opened at 51.5 points and has gone up to the current line of 53.5 total points at most sportsbooks.

Free NFL Sports Bet and Game Prediction

Despite their records, Oakland seems to always play the Chargers tough. In their last 10 head-to-head meetings, these two teams have won 5 games apiece. Furthermore, they are very close in scoring over that span as the Chargers averaged 23 ppg and the Raiders averaged 21.3 ppg. I believe we could see another tight contest this weekend.

The Raiders might be 1-3, but they had a shot at beating the Broncos in Week 2 and collapsed late in the game against the Dolphins in Week 3. If they would’ve held on or played better in the latter portions of both of those games then they could be sitting here with a 3-1 record.

Raiders QB Derek Carr has had a rough first 3 games of the season. However, he seemed to turn things around last weekend against the Browns as he finished the game with 437 passing yards and 4 TDs. However, he did throw 2 more picks, which now bumps his season total up to 7. Marshawn Lynch also had his best game of the season as he finished with 130 rushing yards on 20 carries.

Defensively, the Raiders continued to give up tons of yards and points last weekend. For the season, Oakland has given up 30.8 ppg, 412 total yards per game, 272.8 passing ypg, and 139.3 rushing ypg. Chargers QB Philip Rivers is licking his chops over these numbers. For the season, Rivers has 1,156 passing yards, 11 TDs and just 2 INTs. The Chargers offense has averaged 27.8 ppg and 413.8 total ypg.

The problem for the Chargers is that they continue to allow inferior opponents to claw their way back in the game. Last weekend, the Chargers were up 26-17 on the 49ers with a few minutes left in the 3rd quarter. LA held on to win 29-27. Three weeks ago against the Bills, LA was up 28-6 at halftime, but went on to win 31-20. Make no mistake about it, on paper, the Chargers are the superior team. Unfortunately, that doesn’t always transfer on to the playing field.

With how close this rivalry has been, I’m shying away from the spread despite it only being 4.5 points. Here are a few reasons why: the Chargers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games and only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games against the Raiders. Oakland is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Chargers. I’m also concerned with the Over/Under for this game because I’m not sure which Raiders offense is going to show up: the won that scored 42 against the Browns or the one that averaged 17.3 ppg the first 3 weeks of the season.

I believe the smart play in this game is taking the Chargers moneyline at -220. I believe that Los Angeles will win this game despite it probably ending up being a tight contest in the end. The Chargers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record, 6-3 SU during Weeks 5 through 9 over the last few years, 6-1 SU in their last 7 home games, and 17-8 SU in their last 25 games against the Raiders. Oakland is 0-9 SU when the spread is +3.5 to 9.5, 0-6 SU as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7, 6-14 SU as an underdog over the last 3 years, and 0-5 SU in their last 5 road games.

Raiders vs Chargers Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Money lines: Raiders (+190) and Chargers (-220)
  • Spread: Chargers -4.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 53.5 total points (-105)
  • Prediction: Chargers 30 – Raiders 27
Pick: Chargers
-220

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