Ravens vs Browns – NFL Pick for October 7th

by Rick Rockwell
on October 5, 2018
6

Minute Read

This AFC North battle features a rejuvenated Cleveland Browns team and the Baltimore Ravens who are once again wreaking havoc on defense. This game always has bad blood and it should be a very physical affair on Sunday. Will the Browns take down their bitter rival or will the Ravens silence the Dawg Pound? Kickoff inside FirstEnergy Stadium is at 1 PM ET.

Betting Data Baltimore Ravens Cleveland Browns
Current S/U record 3-1 1-2-1
2018 Home 2-0 1-0-1
2018 Away 1-1 0-2
2018 ATS 3-1 3-1
2018 ATS Home 2-0 2-0
2018 ATS Away 1-1 1-1
2018 O/U 2-2 2-2
2018 O/U Home 1-1 1-1
2018 O/U Away 1-1 1-1

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns AFC North Game Preview

Since 1999, the Browns and Ravens have played against each other 38 times. Baltimore has a commanding lead in this head-to-head rivalry with a record of 29-9. Keep in mind, the Ravens were originally the old Cleveland Browns before they packed up and moved to Baltimore. This rivalry always has an extra hatred to it for the current Browns team and fans.

Baltimore (3-1) is coming into this matchup looking like a contender to win the AFC North. The Ravens just demolished the Steelers in Pittsburgh by a score of 26-14. The Ravens are sporting one of the league’s best defenses and they’re getting their top CB back for this game against the Browns. Will the Ravens improve their division record to 2-1 on Sunday?

Cleveland (1-2-1) lost a heartbreaker to the Oakland Raiders last weekend in OT by a score of 45-42. The Browns were up 28-14 half way through the 3rd quarter, before falling behind 34-28 early in the 4th. Cleveland would rally to take a 42-34 lead late in the game, but allowed Oakland to tie the game with 30 seconds left and then allow the Raiders to win in OT via a FG. Cleveland hopes they can take that offensive success last weekend and carry it into this game against an elite defense.

The majority of online sportsbooks opened the spread at -3 in favor of the Ravens. Currently, the line remains unchanged. The Over/Under opened at 47 points and has gone up slightly to 47.5 total points with most betting sites.

Free NFL Sports Bet and Game Prediction

Over the first three weeks of the season, Cleveland couldn’t score more than 21 points. However, in Baker Mayfield’s first career start, the Browns offense put up 42 points. That’s exciting for Cleveland fans, but keep in mind that it was against the Raiders who have a poor defense. The Ravens are only allowing 16.3 ppg and that’s after playing against teams like the Bengals, Broncos and Steelers. In fact, they only allowed 14 points to the Steelers last weekend, a team that was averaging almost 30 ppg over the first 3 weeks. If they can make a vaunted Steelers offense look anemic, imagine what they will do the Browns and a rookie QB.

Furthermore, the Ravens only allow 289.8 total ypg with 207.3 passing ypg and 82.5 rushing ypg. If they make Cleveland’s offense one dimensional by taking away the run, and putting the pressure all on Mayfield to win the game, then I really like the Ravens to win this contest in a blowout.

As exciting as it is to see Mayfield play football, he hasn’t gone up against a defense like this before. And, as I mentioned above, the Ravens get their best DB back for this game. It’s only going to make their defense even more invincible.

Baltimore’s offense has also been doing a good job this year. They’re averaging 30.8 ppg over the first 4 weeks and tallying 408 total yards per game. Flacco is averaging nearly 319 passing yards per game as he already has 1,252 yards, 8 TDs and 2 INTs on the season. Flacco has answered the bell in 2018 and has this offense putting up some impressive numbers.

The Browns have shown an improvement on the defense, but they do allow 412 total ypg, 26 ppg, and 296 passing yards per game. All of those numbers bode well for the Ravens on Sunday.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the Ravens have gone 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS. With the spread only being 3 points this weekend, I think the Ravens are going to easily cover this. Also during those last 10 games, Baltimore has outscored Cleveland 24.2 ppg to 16.8 ppg.

Baltimore is 9-1 against the Browns over their last 10 head-to-head games in Cleveland. The Ravens are also 9-1 ATS during that span. Cleveland is 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Baltimore.

Furthermore, the Ravens are 10-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3, 10-4 ATS against AFC North opponents. 17-9 ATS in their last 26 grass games and 3-1 ATS this year. The Browns are 2-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3, 0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 division games, 1-6 ATS and 0-8 SU when playing teams with a winning record, 2-24 SU and 9-17 ATS versus AFC teams, 9-24 ATS and 1-32 SU as an underdog.

I don’t see Cleveland having any chance at winning this game. I believe the Ravens are going to make Mayfield look like a deer in the headlights. I also believe that Flacco and the Ravens offense will eventually pull away in the second half. Cleveland will get a late score to make the game appear closer than it really will be.

Take the Ravens to easily cover the field goal spread. Additionally, the under for this game also has some value as it has gone 10-5 in the last 15 head-to-head meetings between these two teams.

Ravens vs Browns Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Money lines: Ravens (-160) and Browns (+140)
  • Spread: Ravens -3 (-113)
  • Over/Under: 47.5 total points (-106)
  • Prediction: Baltimore 27 – Cleveland 17
Pick: Ravens -3
-113

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