SEC Championship Bet: Georgia vs Alabama Odds, Pick and Prediction

by Rick Rockwell
on November 29, 2018
4

Minute Read

On Saturday afternoon, the best conference in college football will hold their championship game as the Georgia Bulldogs look to knock off the undefeated Alabama Crimson Tide. For the Crimson Tide, they’ve pretty much locked up a CFP spot even if they somehow lose this game. For Georgia, they will need to win this game to earn a CFP spot. A second loss will drop them out of CFP contention. Kickoff inside the Mercedes-Benz Stadium is at 4 PM ET.

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Georgia vs Alabama Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of Live Odds feed:

Betting Data Georgia Bulldogs Alabama Crimson Tide
Current S/U record 8-4 11-1
2018 Home 3-4 7-0
2018 Away 5-0 4-1
2018 ATS 6-5-1 5-7
2018 ATS Home 2-4-1 4-3
2018 ATS Away 4-1 1-4
2018 O/U 5-7 6-6
2018 O/U Home 3-4 3-4
2018 O/U Away 2-3 3-2

SEC Title Game Preview: Georgia vs Alabama

This weekend’s SEC title game represents the 69th time these two talented football programs have played against each other. Alabama has gone 39-25-4 against Georgia, including winning the last 4 head-to-head meetings. Alabama won an exciting contest over Georgia in the CFP National title game last year. They also defeated Georgia in the 2012 SEC title game.

Georgia (11-1, 7-1 SEC) comes into this title game after winning the SEC East division by two games. Last weekend, the Bulldogs demolished in-state rival Georgia Tech by a score of 45-21 and pushed their winning streak to 5 games. During their streak, Georgia has defeated three different Top 25 teams including Florida, Kentucky and Auburn. They definitely rebounded after losing to LSU six games ago.

Alabama (12-0, 8-0 SEC) has been the number one team all season long. They have destroyed every team on the schedule this year. The closest game was a 45 to 23 win over Texas A&M. Otherwise, every win was by 24 or more points. Oddsmakers feel that Bama is the clear favorite in this game, but can the Dawgs make it another close contest like the National Championship game in January?

Alabama opened as a 10 point favorite with the majority of online betting sites. As this week has progressed, the Crimson Tide have slowly risen to a 13 point favorite with most football betting sites. The Over/Under has also seen some movement. Many internet sportsbooks opened with the total being around 61.5 points. Currently, the O/U is listed at 63.5 total points with most online sportsbooks.

Free SEC Championship Bet and Prediction: Georgia -13

Can anyone beat Alabama? That is the question that’s been asked all season long. And, it will continue to be asked over the playoffs as well.

The Crimson Tide have won their last 14 games in a row and have done so by an average margin of 31.71 ppg. Georgia stumbled against LSU this year, but they finished with an 11-1 record, never fell outside of the Top 10, and had an average winning margin of 27.73 ppg.

Both offenses are juggernauts, but Alabama does have an edge in the stats. The Crimson Tide average 49 ppg, 538 total ypg, 332.1 passing ypg, and 205.9 rushing ypg. The Bulldogs average 40.1 ppg, 480.8 total ypg, 221.0 passing ypg, and 259.8 rushing ypg.

Both teams also have great defenses. The Tide allow 13.8 ppg, 282.2 total ypg, 168.2 passing ypg, and 114 rushing ypg. The Bulldogs allow 17.2 ppg, 303.5 total ypg, 175.1 passing ypg and 128.4 ppg.

In the National Title game this past January, these two powerhouses played a great game with Alabama winning 26 to 23. It was current Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa who came off the bench and led the Crimson Tide to a come from behind win. That same QB is the frontrunner for this year’s Heisman Trophy award as he’s thrown for 3,189 yards, 36 TDs and just 2 INTs. He will be the one player Georgia has to contain or they will get steamrolled.

Georgia does have a great pass defense that will be a good test for Tagovailoa. But, the key for Georgia this weekend is to get their top-notch rushing attack going. The Bulldogs average almost 260 rushing ypg and they feature the duo of Holyfield (896 yards) and Swift (962) who are looking to become a 1,000 yard tandem. If they can establish the run then they will control the clock and also keep the #2 scoring offense off the field.

I’m not confident that Georgia can beat Alabama. In fact, until a team does defeat the Crimson Tide, I don’t think Alabama will ever lose as long as Tua is at QB. So, avoid the moneylines in this game as they’re a waste of betting funds.

I do believe Georgia has enough talent and star players to keep this game close. In the last 4 meetings, Alabama has gone 4-0 SU, but their average margin of wins over that span was 11.5 points. And, as already stated, Alabama only defeated the Bulldogs by 3 points in the National Title game.

I think we will get the best Georgia team this weekend as they’re desperate for a CFP spot and they want to get revenge against Alabama. Additionally, they’re playing in Atlanta, which should give them the home-field edge this weekend.

The Crimson Tide are incredible and dominate the majority of betting stats. So, I’m going to focus on Georgia here: they’re 5-2 ATS versus the SEC this year, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog, 7-1 ATS in games played at a neutral site, 7-2 ATS in games on field turf, and 15-5 ATS when playing against teams with winning records. That includes going 5-1 ATS versus winning teams this year.

I believe a desperate Georgia team is going to keep this game within two touchdowns even if it means they score a late TD to do so. Although both teams can score a lot of points, watch for the defenses to play great just like the National Title game. This will also help to keep the score close.

Georgia vs Alabama Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Georgia (+405) and Alabama (-500)
  • Spread: Alabama -13 (-103)
  • Over/Under: 63.5 total points (-110)
  • Prediction: Alabama 31 – Georgia 20
Pick: Georgia -13
-110

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