Spurs at Warriors NBA Pick and Live Betting Odds

by Taylor Smith
on February 6, 2019
6

Minute Read

Following a largely underwhelming first few months of the season (by their standards), the 2-time defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors seem to have found their footing. The Warriors are now at 37-15 on the season, which is good for the best record in the Western Conference. It’s a far cry from the team that went 73-9 during the regular season three years ago, but few would argue that this year’s team is not better than the one that set the NBA’s regular season record for wins.

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The No. 1 seed for Golden State is far from assured, but they’re in the driver’s seat as it stands. Denver is looming just a half-game back, but at this point, I would be surprised if the Dubs surrendered the top playoff seed. The real intrigue with the Western Conference starts just below Golden State in the standings. There is a gaggle of teams duking it out for playoff positioning underneath them.

One of those teams is the San Antonio Spurs. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the Spurs have exceeded expectations so far this season under Gregg Popovich. San Antonio is currently at 32-23 on the year, which is good for the No. 6 spot in the conference. The Spurs are essentially tied with the Houston Rockets, but Houston currently owns the tiebreaker. However, San Antonio currently finds themselves just three games north of the Sacramento Kings, who occupy the No. 9 spot out West.

The following odds are courtesy of our live odds feed:

Betting Data Spurs Warriors
2019 Straight-Up 32-23 37-15
2019 Home 22-7 19-7
2019 Away 10-16 18-8
2019 ATS 31-24-0 23-28-1
2019 ATS Home 18-11-0 10-15-1
2019 ATS Away 13-13-0 13-13-0
2019 O/U 32-22-1 28-24-0
2019 O/U Home 15-14-0 11-15-0
2019 O/U Away 17-8-1 17-9-0

Resting Spurs

Every February, the Spurs are forced into a long road trip. The team’s home arena, the AT&T Center, hosts a local rodeo every February, which means the team typically embarks on a lengthy road trip near the All-Star break. San Antonio kicked off the annual rodeo road trip on Monday night in Sacramento, where they suffered a 127-112 setback at the hands of the Kings.

Tonight’s game in Oakland marks the second game of the 8-game jaunt that will also take the team through Portland, Salt Lake City, Memphis, Toronto, New York, and Brooklyn. The Spurs won’t play another home game until they host the Pistons on February 27.

With another game tomorrow night in Portland against the Trail Blazers, Popovich has essentially decided to pull the plug on the game tonight in Oakland. Tomorrow’s game against the Blazers is likely more winnable for San Antonio, so Popovich announced late Tuesday that LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan will rest against the Warriors. Aldridge and DeRozan will join Derrick White on the bench, as White is slated to miss the game due to injury.

Obviously, the Spurs being down three starters tonight against the most loaded team in basketball means they’re probably not winning the game. Popovich has basically waved the white flag here. Taking Aldridge and DeRozan off the floor means San Antonio is going to have to find a way to replace 42.5 points per game worth of production. I would imagine guys like Rudy Gay, Marco Belinelli, Davis Bertans, and Pau Gasol will have to step up and fill the void. Patty Mills and Bryn Forbes will also likely see more prominent roles offensively.

This will be the first time the Spurs will have been without both Aldridge and DeRozan in the same game this season, so we don’t have much to go on regarding how the offense will look without them. Popovich’s teams have had a way of rising up and playing well with stars resting in the past, but it’s tough to squint and see how this game stays all that competitive over the course of four quarters.

Rebounding Warriors

The Warriors rested Draymond Green last week, and Golden State certainly knows by now how little the regular season means. Now that we know the Spurs are resting their two best players don’t be surprised to hear that Steve Kerr eventually decides to sit one or two of his starters for this one. We have no firm news on this at all as of this writing, but keep that in mind as you consider betting on this game.

For now, we must assume that the Warriors are going to be operating at full strength tonight. Golden State is off tomorrow before traveling to Phoenix for an island road game on Friday night. So, with no back-to-back on the way, I’m expecting DeMarcus Cousins, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, and Green to all be in the lineup for this game.

So far, so good when it comes to the Boogie Cousins experiment with the Warriors. Golden State has gone 6-1 in the seven games since Cousins returned to the floor last month, with the lone loss being a 113-104 defeat last Thursday at the hands of the 76ers. That loss snapped an 11-game winning streak for the Warriors, but they’ll look to win their second straight tonight after toppling the Lakers over the weekend.

Cousins hasn’t played more than 25 minutes in a game yet, but he has still averaged 14.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, and four assists to this point. One would imagine Kerr will start slowly ramping up his minutes as the season progresses, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he started inching closer to 30 in the coming days.

One player whose usage numbers have dipped with Cousins in the lineup is Curry. The 2-time MVP is coming off a lackluster game against the Lakers in which he scored just 14 points and shot 5-for-15 from the field. Curry, who averages 18.8 field goal attempts per game, has shot 15 or fewer times in three of the last five games. Curry is arguably the greatest shooter in the history of the game, so the Warriors aren’t really at their peak when Steph isn’t shooting as often as he should be.

Curry is making 5.2 3-point attempts per game this season. If he finishes the season averaging 5 or more makes per game, it will be just the second time in league history that a player finishes a season averaging as many as 5 3-pointers per game. As it stands, Curry is the only player to have ever made that many per game in a season. He averaged 5.1 threes per game during his 2015-16 MVP campaign.

The Pick

The Warriors are now averaging 114.6 points per 100 possessions, which is the best mark in the league. Fascinatingly, the Spurs rank second in the same category at 111.7 points per 100 possessions. The fact that these two teams have been the best offenses to the league to this point despite playing different styles is amazing.

We know Golden State lives beyond the 3-point line. Kerr’s Warriors have helped revolutionize the game with their shooting. The Dubs take 33.3 3-point attempts per game, which ranks ninth in the league. The Rockets, who are ridiculous, average 44.3 threes a night.

San Antonio, conversely, is tied for last in that department. The Spurs take just 24.3 3-pointers per game, which is tied for the fewest in the league with the Clippers. San Antonio has made the most of its looks, though, as they have connected on a league-best 40.5 percent of their attempts from long range.

DeRozan and Aldridge are players that thrive on mid-range shots, but I’d expect the Spurs to take more threes tonight with both players out of the lineup. Even so, there is little reason to believe the Spurs are going to be able to keep their heads above water tonight. This should be a massacre with San Antonio so short-handed.

14 ½ points is a big spread, but the Warriors have had a way of making similar spreads look too low in recent years. I think that’s the case again tonight. Give me Golden State to win this one easily. I think they cover the 14 ½-point spread in a rout of the Spurs here.

Pick: Warriors -14.5
-105

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