Tigers vs Mariners – Free MLB Pick for June 19th

by Kevin Roberts
on June 19, 2017

MLB fans could be in for an explosive affair on Monday night, when the Detroit Tigers head to Safeco Field to launch an intense four-game series with the Seattle Mariners.

Detroit enters fresh off of a tough series with the Tampa Bay Rays, who they split a four-game series (2-2) with, losing the last two contests. The Tigers haven’t been in top form lately, going just 3-7 over their last 10 games and inching closer to the bottom of the AL Central. Detroit’s bad run will be put to the test tonight, as will as their shaky 14-20 road record.

The Mariners could be in a good spot at home, as they’ve been at their best (20-13) at Safeco Field in 2017. Seattle has also had some struggles lately, as they dropped their series with the Texas Rangers (2-1) and slide into this showdown with a 4-6 run over their last 10 contests.

Seattle comes in as the clear favorite due to their success at home, but MLB bettors will have to wonder if the Tigers present too much value to pass up or if the Total is worth attacking. Let’s dig into this matchup to find out:

Detroit Tigers (+130)
Seattle Mariners (-140)
Total: 9.5

The first thing we can notice right off the bat is the pitching in this game isn’t very scary, which sets up a very winnable platform for either side. Detroit sends Anibel Sanchez (0-0, 9.00 ERA) onto the mound in this one, while Sam Gaviglio (3-1, 3.41 ERA) will try to survive another game on the other side.

Detroit is not in an enviable spot, as they struggle on the road to begin with and Sanchez has not been a reliable arm. The 33-year old righty draws his first start of the year after numerous appearances out of the bullpen. Sanchez has been erratic in that role, sporting a nasty 10.45 ERA on the road and specifically having problems with the long ball. That has things picking up where they left off a year ago, where Sanchez went just 7-13 and gave up 30 home runs.

Sanchez could be rewarded with some mild luck, as the Mariners don’t grade out well in terms of power against right-handed pitching. Seattle does play well at their home park, however, while the team is very efficient, ranking 7th in batting average against righties.

On the other side the Mariners get the steady Gaviglio, who doesn’t look like an unearthed gem, but has held it together across six starts. The 27-year old righty has had issues keeping the ball in the park, however, as he gave up three dingers in his last start and has now allowed 9 homers on the year.

Gaviglio has been solid at managing games and keeping the ball in play, while he’s also sported a nasty 1.13 ERA at home. We should note that Gaviglio has endured most of his struggles against right-handed hitting, however, while the Tigers are stacked with a talented righty lineup.

More importantly, the Tigers can flat out mash right-handed pitching and rank inside the top 20, both for batting average and homers. That doesn’t necessarily sound the alarm for the Tigers to go nuts in this one, but the success we’ve seen out of Gaviglio has been modest and it’s worth arguing that he’s headed for a meltdown.

We also can’t take Gaviglio’s home dominance as gospel, considering he’s only started three games at Safeco Park and he’ll be hosting a dangerous lineup with plenty of pop. Ultimately, there’s not enough here to back the Tigers, but the pitching is suspect and the offenses are talented. We should chase the Over.

Pick: Over 9.5 (-105)
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