Yankees vs Tigers – MLB Pick for June 4th
The New York Yankees and Detroit TIgers are set to play a doubleheader today in Motown. This pick is for Game 2, which will be started by Domingo German and Mike Fiers.
The Yankees had 2 games rained out over the weekend in Baltimore, but the Bronx Bombers did come out victorious in the 2 others they actually played. The Yankees have now won 4 straight overall to surpass the Red Sox for first place in the AL East. The Tigers, meanwhile, have quietly been playing excellent baseball themselves. Detroit is 28-31, but that’s still good enough for second in the AL Central. The Tigers have won 4 of 5 overall.
German has had middling results since being thrust into the rotation in the spot of the injured Jordan Montgomery. The right-hander has an excellent strikeout rate of 27.5 percent, but his walks are over 11 percent so far. German has also allowed a 34.4 percent hard-hit rate, and he hasn’t done a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground. He has also yielded 6 home runs in his 9 appearances on the year.
German has the stuff to dominate what looks like an underwhelming Tigers offense, but he hasn’t yet shown that he’s capable of harnessing it. He has a career walk rate over 12 percent at the big league level, and it typically leads to major trouble. German has been able to strand just 64.8 percent of runners that reach against him. League average is around 73 percent.
German has also shown reverse splits at the major league level, which doesn’t bode particularly well against a Tigers lineup full of right-handed hitters. Not all of them are quality bats, but Detroit has been quietly chugging along, surpassing expectations. Most expected this to be the worst team in the American League this season, but that has been far from the case.
As for Fiers, he’s a reverse splits, right-handed fly ball pitcher that struggles with home runs. Fiers has already allowed 11 dingers this season after conceding 32 of them last year. You know who hits a lot of home runs? The Yankees. In fact, the Yanks’ 90 dingers as a team is the most in baseball thus far.
Fiers has a 15.3 percent strikeout rate on the year, so he hasn’t shown that he can miss many bats at this point. He has also allowed a hard contact rate of nearly 34 percent. I’ll stop short of saying Fiers is a gas can, but his fly ball, low-strikeout skill set is one that can get him into serious trouble against a lineup as dangerous as New York’s.
The total of 9 ½ runs here is pretty high, but I’m not sure it’s high enough. This game has all the makings of one in which the Yankees in particular should feast. I also expect the Tigers to touch German up for a few runs in this spot on the other side. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of lineup we get, as most of the best hitters on both teams started Game 1. Gary Sanchez was a notable exception for New York, so I would imagine his power bat will be in there for the nightcap.
I think the over on 9 ½ is easily the play here, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Yankees scored double-digit runs on their own.
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